{"area":{"county":"Hidalgo County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"hidalgo-tx","metro":"McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":112013},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":117800},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":122728},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":130818},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":136691},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":140900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":143536},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":145098},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":151825},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":151915},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":149833},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":155921},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":157301},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":161697},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":161425},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":162964},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":160854},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":170042},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":165205},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":167637},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":173108}],"latest":173108,"yoy":7.618088452882739,"fiveYr":54.5427762848955,"sinceStart":245.5456414555762,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1017}],"latest":1017,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":54338,"population":891977,"povertyRate":26.665549525762366,"medianHomeValue":140900,"medianGrossRent":957,"medianPropertyTax":2279},"hud":{"county":"Hidalgo County","year":"2027","perUnit":1017,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.097530102454954,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":173108,"monthlyRent":1017,"grossRent":1017,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":34621.6,"loan":138486.4,"mortgagePI":898.2201544058454,"monthlyTax":233.26303,"taxRatePct":1.617,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.62% ($2,279 tax ÷ $140,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":122.61816666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.85,"egi":966.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":559.2811966666667,"noi":406.8688033333333,"totalExpenses":1457.501351072512,"cashFlow":-491.3513510725121,"annualCf":-5896.216212870146,"cocReturn":-17.030455590932096,"capRate":2.820450608868452},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-567.626351072512,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-521.8613510725121,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-522.0058927391788,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-633.5332710190464,"delta":-142,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-10-01) (home values −19.9% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1988-10-01 → 1989-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-643.2838779214259,"delta":-152,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-643.2838779214259,"baselineCashFlow":-491.3513510725121,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.097530102454954,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93512.68845483713,"totalCashOutlay":165183.76599061998,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":318435.5664640338,"equityBuilt":192707.26302487717,"netCostOfBuying":7098.102965742815,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":86414.58548909432},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.185763185984026,"price":173108,"medianIncome":54338,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.617,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.62% ($2,279 tax ÷ $140,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":173108,"secondary":140900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1017,"secondary":957,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":140900,"high":173108}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":957,"high":1017}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":140900,"high":173108}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":957,"high":1017}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hidalgo County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hidalgo County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Hidalgo County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hidalgo County?","a":"The typical home value in Hidalgo County is about $173,108 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 7.6% year-over-year, and up 54.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hidalgo County?","a":"The typical rent in Hidalgo County is about $1,017/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hidalgo County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hidalgo County — roughly $86,415 ahead of renting, with about $192,707 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hidalgo County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hidalgo County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hidalgo County?","a":"Hidalgo County's effective property tax rate is about 1.62% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.62% ($2,279 tax ÷ $140,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $173,108 median home is roughly $233/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hidalgo County, TX was $173,108 as of April 2026, up 7.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hidalgo County, TX was $1,017/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hidalgo County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hidalgo-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hidalgo-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:31:07.846Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":173108,"countyFmr":1017,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}