{"area":{"county":"Haywood County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"haywood-tn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":123249},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":130624},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":137718},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":145110},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":151161},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":152400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":151891},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":154326},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":155671},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":158234},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":161423},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":162779},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":164046},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":166388},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":168638},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":167456},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":169147},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":168972},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":169314},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":171111},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":170634}],"latest":170634,"yoy":0.8791169810874565,"fiveYr":38.4465594041331,"sinceStart":379.40325344871184,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":995}],"latest":995,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":50472,"population":17475,"povertyRate":21.50906133828996,"medianHomeValue":152400,"medianGrossRent":762,"medianPropertyTax":952},"hud":{"county":"Haywood County","year":"2027","perUnit":995,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":69418,"ratePer100k":474.48584266246854},"propertyCrime":{"total":224746,"ratePer100k":1536.1836295344028},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.723559615124053,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":170634,"monthlyRent":995,"grossRent":995,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":34126.8,"loan":136507.2,"mortgagePI":885.3831008785673,"monthlyTax":88.871875,"taxRatePct":0.625,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.63% ($952 tax ÷ $152,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":85.317,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.75,"egi":945.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":99.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":373.188875,"noi":572.061125,"totalExpenses":1258.5719758785674,"cashFlow":-313.3219758785674,"annualCf":-3759.863710542809,"cocReturn":-11.017334501162747,"capRate":4.023074826822321},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-387.9469758785673,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-343.1719758785673,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-334.6512258785674,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-453.471880725004,"delta":-140,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-348.1761253796201,"delta":-35,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-453.471880725004,"baselineCashFlow":-313.3219758785674,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.723559615124053,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":91489.79843909829,"totalCashOutlay":139687.5566232707,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":269083.88312291325,"equityBuilt":145152.4453555249,"netCostOfBuying":28661.911267745818,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":62827.88717135247},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.380765572990965,"price":170634,"medianIncome":50472,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.625,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.63% ($952 tax ÷ $152,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":170634,"secondary":152400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":995,"secondary":762,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152400,"high":170634}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":762,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152400,"high":170634}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":762,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Haywood County, TN leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Haywood County, TN a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Haywood County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Haywood County?","a":"The typical home value in Haywood County is about $170,634 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.9% year-over-year, and up 38.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Haywood County?","a":"The typical rent in Haywood County is about $995/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Haywood County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Haywood County — roughly $62,828 ahead of renting, with about $145,152 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Haywood County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Haywood County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Haywood County?","a":"Haywood County's effective property tax rate is about 0.63% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.63% ($952 tax ÷ $152,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $170,634 median home is roughly $89/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Haywood County, TN was $170,634 as of April 2026, up 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Haywood County, TN was $995/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Haywood County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=haywood-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=haywood-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:25:20.687Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":170634,"countyFmr":995,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}