{"area":{"county":"Haywood County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"haywood-nc","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":225726},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":239564},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":250259},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":264650},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":278626},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":279200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":282475},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":285546},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":291093},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":299116},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":299435},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":303995},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":307792},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":310370},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":315568},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":317246},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":317471},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":317086},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":318785},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":319475},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":318785}],"latest":318785,"yoy":0.41389607239716386,"fiveYr":41.22653128128793,"sinceStart":339.06151006803844,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1250}],"latest":1250,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61912,"population":62662,"povertyRate":13.125040429523255,"medianHomeValue":279200,"medianGrossRent":1067,"medianPropertyTax":1583},"hud":{"county":"Haywood County","year":"2027","perUnit":1250,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":66735,"ratePer100k":297.9781688963569},"propertyCrime":{"total":354569,"ratePer100k":1583.184556340936},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.148812815609462,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":318785,"monthlyRent":1250,"grossRent":1250,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":63757,"loan":255028,"mortgagePI":1654.106753715989,"monthlyTax":150.6259125,"taxRatePct":0.567,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,583 tax ÷ $279,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":175.33174999999997,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":62.5,"egi":1187.5,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":125,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":62.5,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":62.5,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":575.9576625,"noi":611.5423375,"totalExpenses":2230.064416215989,"cashFlow":-1042.564416215989,"annualCf":-12510.772994591869,"cocReturn":-19.622587315262432,"capRate":2.3020242640023842},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1136.314416215989,"delta":-94,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1080.064416215989,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1086.397353715989,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1304.397857478992,"delta":-262,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1100.9037693015955,"delta":-58,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1304.397857478992,"baselineCashFlow":-1042.564416215989,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.148812815609462,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":114936.93271243501,"totalCashOutlay":270322.8446410309,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":516903.44034897845,"equityBuilt":285369.9629137846,"netCostOfBuying":48709.88172724628,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":66227.05098518873},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.1490018090192535,"price":318785,"medianIncome":61912,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.567,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,583 tax ÷ $279,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":318785,"secondary":279200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1250,"secondary":1067,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":279200,"high":318785}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1067,"high":1250}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":279200,"high":318785}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1067,"high":1250}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Haywood County, NC is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Haywood County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.3x, Haywood County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Haywood County?","a":"The typical home value in Haywood County is about $318,785 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Haywood County?","a":"The typical rent in Haywood County is about $1,250/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Haywood County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Haywood County — roughly $66,227 ahead of renting, with about $285,370 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Haywood County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Haywood County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Haywood County?","a":"Haywood County's effective property tax rate is about 0.57% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,583 tax ÷ $279,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $318,785 median home is roughly $151/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Haywood County, NC was $318,785 as of April 2026, up 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Haywood County, NC was $1,250/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Haywood County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=haywood-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=haywood-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T10:10:17.226Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":318785,"countyFmr":1250,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}