{"area":{"county":"Hawkins County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"hawkins-tn","metro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":134060},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":144269},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":149519},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":156417},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":170002},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":176300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":176032},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":179528},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":183303},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":188994},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":193069},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":191633},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":200296},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":199569},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":205900},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":208227},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":208604},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":208571},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":214541},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":211515},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":214864}],"latest":214864,"yoy":3.000901229123123,"fiveYr":60.274503953453674,"sinceStart":385.3928523019925,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1091}],"latest":1091,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56936,"population":57964,"povertyRate":15.173317034838032,"medianHomeValue":176300,"medianGrossRent":785,"medianPropertyTax":956},"hud":{"county":"Hawkins County","year":"2027","perUnit":1091,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.895142863438977,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":214864,"monthlyRent":1091,"grossRent":1091,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":42972.8,"loan":171891.2,"mortgagePI":1114.8830513682647,"monthlyTax":97.04690666666669,"taxRatePct":0.542,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($956 tax ÷ $176,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":107.432,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.550000000000004,"egi":1036.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":422.6789066666667,"noi":613.7710933333333,"totalExpenses":1537.5619580349314,"cashFlow":-501.1119580349314,"annualCf":-6013.3434964191765,"cocReturn":-13.993371380080365,"capRate":3.4278674510387965},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-582.9369580349314,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-533.8419580349314,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-527.9699580349313,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-677.59008756905,"delta":-176,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1987-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1988-01-01 → 1988-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-552.003665615242,"delta":-51,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-677.59008756905,"baselineCashFlow":-501.1119580349314,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.895142863438977,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100316.95487141327,"totalCashOutlay":179902.40080222345,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":415923.19640804874,"equityBuilt":259867.51908434922,"netCostOfBuying":-36992.31828212578,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":137309.27315353905},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.7737810875368836,"price":214864,"medianIncome":56936,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.542,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($956 tax ÷ $176,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":214864,"secondary":176300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1091,"secondary":785,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.39,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":176300,"high":214864}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":785,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":176300,"high":214864}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":785,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hawkins County, TN is a moderate market — a 16.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hawkins County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Hawkins County's 16.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hawkins County?","a":"The typical home value in Hawkins County is about $214,864 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.0% year-over-year, and up 60.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hawkins County?","a":"The typical rent in Hawkins County is about $1,091/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hawkins County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hawkins County — roughly $137,309 ahead of renting, with about $259,868 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hawkins County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hawkins County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hawkins County?","a":"Hawkins County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($956 tax ÷ $176,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $214,864 median home is roughly $97/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hawkins County, TN was $214,864 as of April 2026, up 3.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hawkins County, TN was $1,091/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hawkins County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hawkins-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hawkins-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:35:36.696Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":214864,"countyFmr":1091,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}