{"area":{"county":"Hardy County","state":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","slug":"hardy-wv","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":147573},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":153648},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":157077},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":163230},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":167949},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":166300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":166455},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":171109},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":171449},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177393},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":187105},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":176509},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":190295},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":186251},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":193557},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":192691},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":195271},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":197439},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":194357},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":202314},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":206173}],"latest":206173,"yoy":5.583010278023875,"fiveYr":39.70916088986468,"sinceStart":245.15183982321625,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":955}],"latest":955,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49272,"population":14243,"povertyRate":17.69203539823009,"medianHomeValue":166300,"medianGrossRent":816,"medianPropertyTax":575},"hud":{"county":"Hardy County","year":"2027","perUnit":955,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"West Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7321,"ratePer100k":206.81036328679608},"propertyCrime":{"total":30696,"ratePer100k":867.1289320381767},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.917538928472089,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":206173,"monthlyRent":955,"grossRent":955,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WV","down":41234.600000000006,"loan":164938.4,"mortgagePI":1069.7873229100696,"monthlyTax":59.44654833333333,"taxRatePct":0.346,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.35% ($575 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":89.34163333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.75,"egi":907.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":95.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":339.7881816666667,"noi":567.4618183333333,"totalExpenses":1409.5755045767364,"cashFlow":-502.3255045767363,"annualCf":-6027.906054920835,"cocReturn":-14.618563184609126,"capRate":3.3028290901330437},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-573.9505045767364,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-530.9755045767363,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-524.6609129100697,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-671.6652981225969,"delta":-169,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.7% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-10-01 → 2024-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-542.8876755502538,"delta":-41,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-671.6652981225969,"baselineCashFlow":-502.3255045767363,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.917538928472089,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":87811.81659230034,"totalCashOutlay":167937.26361562064,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":329286.9082044374,"equityBuilt":179543.50232509457,"netCostOfBuying":29628.36129052608,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":58183.45530177426},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.184384640363695,"price":206173,"medianIncome":49272,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.346,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.35% ($575 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":206173,"secondary":166300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":955,"secondary":816,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":206173}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":816,"high":955}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166300,"high":206173}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":816,"high":955}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hardy County, WV is a moderate market — a 18.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hardy County, WV a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Hardy County's 18.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hardy County?","a":"The typical home value in Hardy County is about $206,173 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 39.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hardy County?","a":"The typical rent in Hardy County is about $955/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hardy County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hardy County — roughly $58,183 ahead of renting, with about $179,544 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hardy County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hardy County's median home value is 4.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hardy County?","a":"Hardy County's effective property tax rate is about 0.35% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.35% ($575 tax ÷ $166,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $206,173 median home is roughly $59/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hardy County, WV was $206,173 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hardy County, WV was $955/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hardy County, WV has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hardy-wv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hardy-wv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:56:20.722Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":206173,"countyFmr":955,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}