{"area":{"county":"Hamilton County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"hamilton-ia","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":138083},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141748},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":145268},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":149709},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":155302},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":156400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":157479},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":160573},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":161647},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":164669},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":166597},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":169196},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":170918},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":172266},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":174995},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":175585},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":178539},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":179527},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":181427},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":182026},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":182554}],"latest":182554,"yoy":2.248808383602462,"fiveYr":32.20599204826083,"sinceStart":280.6221592093741,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1004}],"latest":1004,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72432,"population":14886,"povertyRate":7.395542226160452,"medianHomeValue":156400,"medianGrossRent":877,"medianPropertyTax":1977},"hud":{"county":"Hamilton County","year":"2027","perUnit":1004,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.743467617072273,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":182554,"monthlyRent":1004,"grossRent":1004,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":36510.8,"loan":146043.2,"mortgagePI":947.2334153673124,"monthlyTax":192.29021333333333,"taxRatePct":1.264,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.26% ($1,977 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":88.23443333333331,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.2,"egi":953.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":100.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":481.3246466666666,"noi":472.4753533333334,"totalExpenses":1428.558062033979,"cashFlow":-474.75806203397906,"annualCf":-5697.096744407749,"cocReturn":-15.603867196576763,"capRate":3.1057682877395187},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-550.058062033979,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-504.87806203397906,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-496.81667036731244,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-624.6984357539667,"delta":-150,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-501.41648866418154,"delta":-27,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-624.6984357539667,"baselineCashFlow":-474.75806203397906,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.743467617072273,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":92317.34435462781,"totalCashOutlay":162906.46651029462,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":269877.1961021377,"equityBuilt":137288.26487982686,"netCostOfBuying":62129.001630467756,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":30188.34272416006},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.5203501214932627,"price":182554,"medianIncome":72432,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.264,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.26% ($1,977 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":182554,"secondary":156400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1004,"secondary":877,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156400,"high":182554}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":877,"high":1004}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156400,"high":182554}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":877,"high":1004}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hamilton County, IA is a moderate market — a 15.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hamilton County, IA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Hamilton County's 15.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hamilton County?","a":"The typical home value in Hamilton County is about $182,554 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.2% year-over-year, and up 32.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hamilton County?","a":"The typical rent in Hamilton County is about $1,004/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hamilton County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hamilton County — roughly $30,188 ahead of renting, with about $137,288 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hamilton County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hamilton County's median home value is 2.5x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hamilton County?","a":"Hamilton County's effective property tax rate is about 1.26% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.26% ($1,977 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $182,554 median home is roughly $192/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hamilton County, IA was $182,554 as of April 2026, up 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hamilton County, IA was $1,004/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hamilton County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hamilton-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hamilton-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:39:10.699Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":182554,"countyFmr":1004,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}