{"area":{"county":"Guilford County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"guilford-nc","metro":"Greensboro-High Point, NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":211893},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":217579},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":230521},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":241202},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":250358},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":259900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":258148},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":265175},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":265744},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":278817},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":271799},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":281621},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":285950},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":281910},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":294168},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":300232},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":289796},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":296184},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":299294},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":297673},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":305077}],"latest":305077,"yoy":5.273019641402918,"fiveYr":43.97691287583827,"sinceStart":248.17794820876276,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1271}],"latest":1271,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":68642,"population":547940,"povertyRate":14.575816157363056,"medianHomeValue":259900,"medianGrossRent":1163,"medianPropertyTax":2174},"hud":{"county":"Guilford County","year":"2027","perUnit":1271,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":66735,"ratePer100k":297.9781688963569},"propertyCrime":{"total":354569,"ratePer100k":1583.184556340936},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 20.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.562999852021179,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":305077,"monthlyRent":1271,"grossRent":1271,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":61015.4,"loan":244061.6,"mortgagePI":1582.9788920539322,"monthlyTax":212.53697666666665,"taxRatePct":0.836,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,174 tax ÷ $259,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":167.79235,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":63.550000000000004,"egi":1207.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":127.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":63.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":63.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":634.5293266666666,"noi":572.9206733333334,"totalExpenses":2217.508218720599,"cashFlow":-1010.0582187205988,"annualCf":-12120.698624647186,"cocReturn":-19.864982651342427,"capRate":2.2535451967863853},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1105.383218720599,"delta":-95,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1048.1882187205988,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1052.0063062205986,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1260.632620779018,"delta":-251,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1098.783210165791,"delta":-89,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1260.632620779018,"baselineCashFlow":-1010.0582187205988,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.562999852021179,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":116867.87318200392,"totalCashOutlay":259523.55894290088,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":508217.7254492637,"equityBuilt":286640.3654872309,"netCostOfBuying":33898.593455669994,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":82969.27972633393},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.444465487602343,"price":305077,"medianIncome":68642,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.836,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,174 tax ÷ $259,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":305077,"secondary":259900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1271,"secondary":1163,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":259900,"high":305077}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1163,"high":1271}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":259900,"high":305077}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1163,"high":1271}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Guilford County, NC is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Guilford County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.0x, Guilford County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Guilford County?","a":"The typical home value in Guilford County is about $305,077 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.3% year-over-year, and up 44.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Guilford County?","a":"The typical rent in Guilford County is about $1,271/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Guilford County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Guilford County — roughly $82,969 ahead of renting, with about $286,640 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Guilford County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Guilford County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Guilford County?","a":"Guilford County's effective property tax rate is about 0.84% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,174 tax ÷ $259,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $305,077 median home is roughly $213/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Guilford County, NC was $305,077 as of April 2026, up 5.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Guilford County, NC was $1,271/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Guilford County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=guilford-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=guilford-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:32:45.826Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Greensboro-High Point, NC HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Greensboro-High Point, NC HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":305077,"countyFmr":1271,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Greensboro-High Point, NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[{"city":"Greensboro","state":"NC"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}