{"area":{"county":"Greenlee County","state":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","slug":"greenlee-az","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":130997},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":140191},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":147581},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":155149},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":162314},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":158600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":155217},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":155749},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":157524},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":161291},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":164095},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":163553},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":166277},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":166505},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":166883},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":167283},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":165996},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":165973},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":168007},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":167688},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":166960}],"latest":166960,"yoy":0.5807368852261501,"fiveYr":27.45330045726238,"sinceStart":464.5690325634869,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1043}],"latest":1043,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71164,"population":9409,"povertyRate":8.18937939859245,"medianHomeValue":158600,"medianGrossRent":648,"medianPropertyTax":518},"hud":{"county":"Greenlee County","year":"2027","perUnit":1043,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arizona","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":53596,"ratePer100k":351.5036691589437},"propertyCrime":{"total":208645,"ratePer100k":1368.3760551471717},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.971910622799736,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":166960,"monthlyRent":1043,"grossRent":1043,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AZ","down":33392,"loan":133568,"mortgagePI":866.3195056242344,"monthlyTax":45.4966,"taxRatePct":0.327,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.33% ($518 tax ÷ $158,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":66.78399999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":52.150000000000006,"egi":990.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":104.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":52.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":52.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":320.88059999999996,"noi":669.9694000000001,"totalExpenses":1187.2001056242343,"cashFlow":-196.3501056242343,"annualCf":-2356.2012674908115,"cocReturn":-7.0561849170184825,"capRate":4.815304743651175},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-274.5751056242343,"delta":-78,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-227.64010562423437,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-213.04610562423431,"delta":-17,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-333.482377698739,"delta":-137,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −22.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-374.1259455831982,"delta":-178,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-374.1259455831982,"baselineCashFlow":-196.3501056242343,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.971910622799736,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":95903.37665525576,"totalCashOutlay":134685.63593466426,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":234489.90461638986,"equityBuilt":113226.89226455407,"netCostOfBuying":54850.74367011018,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41052.63298514558},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.3461300657635884,"price":166960,"medianIncome":71164,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.327,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.33% ($518 tax ÷ $158,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":166960,"secondary":158600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1043,"secondary":648,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.61,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158600,"high":166960}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":648,"high":1043}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158600,"high":166960}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":648,"high":1043}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Greenlee County, AZ leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Greenlee County, AZ a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Greenlee County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Greenlee County?","a":"The typical home value in Greenlee County is about $166,960 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.6% year-over-year, and up 27.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Greenlee County?","a":"The typical rent in Greenlee County is about $1,043/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Greenlee County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Greenlee County — roughly $41,053 ahead of renting, with about $113,227 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Greenlee County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Greenlee County's median home value is 2.3x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Greenlee County?","a":"Greenlee County's effective property tax rate is about 0.33% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.33% ($518 tax ÷ $158,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $166,960 median home is roughly $45/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Greenlee County, AZ was $166,960 as of April 2026, up 0.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Greenlee County, AZ was $1,043/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Greenlee County, AZ has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=greenlee-az","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=greenlee-az"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:34:19.766Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":166960,"countyFmr":1043,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}