{"area":{"county":"Greene County","state":"NY","stateName":"New York","slug":"greene-ny","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":238772},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":246279},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":252872},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":263251},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":272394},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":271600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":272370},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":275105},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":282949},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":292534},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":297819},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":304348},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":308495},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":312890},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":320076},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":325225},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":332091},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":334906},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":337850},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":341170},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":343825}],"latest":343825,"yoy":3.5333688657626974,"fiveYr":43.99720235203458,"sinceStart":328.67740568037306,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1354}],"latest":1354,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":77945,"population":47409,"povertyRate":9.878551532033427,"medianHomeValue":271600,"medianGrossRent":1004,"medianPropertyTax":4056},"hud":{"county":"Greene County","year":"2027","perUnit":1354,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New York","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":140684,"ratePer100k":351.6673251700906},"propertyCrime":{"total":600711,"ratePer100k":1501.5952814126006},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.56603168907779,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":343825,"monthlyRent":1354,"grossRent":1354,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":68765,"loan":275060,"mortgagePI":1784.0339244205338,"monthlyTax":427.77560416666665,"taxRatePct":1.493,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.49% ($4,056 tax ÷ $271,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":143.26041666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67.7,"egi":1286.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":135.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":841.8360208333334,"noi":444.4639791666666,"totalExpenses":2625.869945253867,"cashFlow":-1339.5699452538672,"annualCf":-16074.839343046406,"cocReturn":-23.376484175156556,"capRate":1.5512448920235582},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1441.1199452538672,"delta":-102,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1380.189945253867,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1375.385049420534,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1621.969941935807,"delta":-282,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1381.6109671728684,"delta":-42,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1621.969941935807,"baselineCashFlow":-1339.5699452538672,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.56603168907779,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":124499.6855141096,"totalCashOutlay":314289.98996169853,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":572879.7623924215,"equityBuilt":323159.73830359825,"netCostOfBuying":59895.251658100286,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":64604.43385600932},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.411123227917121,"price":343825,"medianIncome":77945,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.493,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.49% ($4,056 tax ÷ $271,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":343825,"secondary":271600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1354,"secondary":1004,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":271600,"high":343825}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1004,"high":1354}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":271600,"high":343825}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1004,"high":1354}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Greene County, NY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Greene County, NY a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.2x, Greene County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Greene County?","a":"The typical home value in Greene County is about $343,825 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.5% year-over-year, and up 44.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Greene County?","a":"The typical rent in Greene County is about $1,354/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Greene County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Greene County — roughly $64,604 ahead of renting, with about $323,160 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Greene County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Greene County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Greene County?","a":"Greene County's effective property tax rate is about 1.49% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.49% ($4,056 tax ÷ $271,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $343,825 median home is roughly $428/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Greene County, NY was $343,825 as of April 2026, up 3.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Greene County, NY was $1,354/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Greene County, NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=greene-ny","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=greene-ny"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T19:23:34.014Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":343825,"countyFmr":1354,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NY","stateName":"New York","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}