{"area":{"county":"Gray County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"gray-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":86262},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":90559},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":94509},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":98350},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":102883},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":102900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":103060},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":103126},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":103969},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":105497},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":105572},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":106248},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":106877},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":107078},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":107963},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":108524},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":107433},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":107173},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":107365},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":107188},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":107921}],"latest":107921,"yoy":0.4542365939701954,"fiveYr":25.108390716653915,"sinceStart":344.2473140410818,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1083}],"latest":1083,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59614,"population":21045,"povertyRate":15.71835361118302,"medianHomeValue":102900,"medianGrossRent":933,"medianPropertyTax":1408},"hud":{"county":"Gray County","year":"2027","perUnit":1083,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":8.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":4.582724490671564,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":107921,"monthlyRent":1083,"grossRent":1083,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":21584.2,"loan":86336.8,"mortgagePI":559.9788414379072,"monthlyTax":123.02994000000001,"taxRatePct":1.368,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,408 tax ÷ $102,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":76.44404166666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.150000000000006,"egi":1028.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":416.07398166666667,"noi":612.7760183333332,"totalExpenses":976.0528231045739,"cashFlow":52.79717689542599,"annualCf":633.5661227451119,"cocReturn":2.9353236290671507,"capRate":6.813606452868301},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-28.427823104573918,"delta":-81,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":20.307176895426096,"delta":-32,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":33.68616647875933,"delta":-19,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-35.843527072905545,"delta":-89,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":31.538667028595228,"delta":-21,"survives":true}],"survived":3,"total":5,"score":60,"worstCashFlow":-35.843527072905545,"baselineCashFlow":52.79717689542599,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.582724490671564,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99581.35850205368,"totalCashOutlay":98555.09037689753,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":147681.33893394566,"equityBuilt":69298.33967650383,"netCostOfBuying":50840.95070039369,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":48740.407801659996},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":1.8103297883047607,"price":107921,"medianIncome":59614,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.368,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,408 tax ÷ $102,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":107921,"secondary":102900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1083,"secondary":933,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":102900,"high":107921}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":933,"high":1083}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":102900,"high":107921}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":933,"high":1083}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Gray County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 8.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (53/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Gray County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Gray County's price-to-rent ratio of 8.3 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $53/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Gray County?","a":"The typical home value in Gray County is about $107,921 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Gray County?","a":"The typical rent in Gray County is about $1,083/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Gray County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Gray County — roughly $48,740 ahead of renting, with about $69,298 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Gray County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Gray County's median home value is 1.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Gray County?","a":"Gray County's effective property tax rate is about 1.37% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,408 tax ÷ $102,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $107,921 median home is roughly $123/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Gray County, TX was $107,921 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Gray County, TX was $1,083/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Gray County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 8.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=gray-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=gray-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T21:31:49.780Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":107921,"countyFmr":1083,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}