{"area":{"county":"Grant County","state":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","slug":"grant-sd","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":142678},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":150637},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155911},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":162462},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":168807},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":171000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":170235},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":175436},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":177035},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":179060},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":181288},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":181886},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":184381},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":185231},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":188068},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":188339},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":190874},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":190769},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":192123},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":194184},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":193004}],"latest":193004,"yoy":1.1159194023282375,"fiveYr":35.272431629263096,"sinceStart":397.3304473304473,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1179}],"latest":1179,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":75028,"population":7563,"povertyRate":11.582114043484207,"medianHomeValue":171000,"medianGrossRent":763,"medianPropertyTax":1557},"hud":{"county":"Grant County","year":"2027","perUnit":1179,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4636,"ratePer100k":247.8895169897358},"propertyCrime":{"total":20162,"ratePer100k":1078.0734343285274},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.229577009197551,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":193004,"monthlyRent":1179,"grossRent":1179,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SD","down":38600.8,"loan":154403.2,"mortgagePI":1001.4562162404152,"monthlyTax":146.52220333333335,"taxRatePct":0.911,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($1,557 tax ÷ $171,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":109.36893333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.68,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":58.95,"egi":1120.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":117.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":58.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":58.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":491.6911366666667,"noi":628.3588633333333,"totalExpenses":1493.1473529070818,"cashFlow":-373.0973529070819,"annualCf":-4477.168234884983,"cocReturn":-11.598641051182831,"capRate":3.9068135168183034},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-461.52235290708177,"delta":-88,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-408.4673529070818,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-400.4395862404152,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-531.6208138526241,"delta":-159,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.2% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-401.09273847734516,"delta":-28,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-531.6208138526241,"baselineCashFlow":-373.0973529070819,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.229577009197551,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":108408.51493436872,"totalCashOutlay":167913.69148751127,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","homeValueAfter":294635.0944725917,"equityBuilt":154456.33048149358,"netCostOfBuying":52058.16100601769,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":56350.35392835103},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.5724262941835048,"price":193004,"medianIncome":75028,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.911,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($1,557 tax ÷ $171,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":193004,"secondary":171000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1179,"secondary":763,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.55,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171000,"high":193004}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":763,"high":1179}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":171000,"high":193004}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":763,"high":1179}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Grant County, SD leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Grant County, SD a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Grant County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Grant County?","a":"The typical home value in Grant County is about $193,004 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 35.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Grant County?","a":"The typical rent in Grant County is about $1,179/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Grant County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Grant County — roughly $56,350 ahead of renting, with about $154,456 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Grant County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Grant County's median home value is 2.6x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Grant County?","a":"Grant County's effective property tax rate is about 0.91% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($1,557 tax ÷ $171,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $193,004 median home is roughly $147/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Grant County, SD was $193,004 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Grant County, SD was $1,179/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Grant County, SD has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=grant-sd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=grant-sd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T23:15:53.404Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":193004,"countyFmr":1179,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}