{"area":{"county":"Gibson County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"gibson-tn","metro":"Gibson County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":121997},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":128764},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":135463},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":144130},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":151400},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":156900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":160358},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":159476},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":161655},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":166529},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":170502},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":172154},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":178591},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":176921},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":184558},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":179908},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":179864},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":180646},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":186761},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":187947},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":190815}],"latest":190815,"yoy":6.0884890806387055,"fiveYr":56.40958384222563,"sinceStart":282.47910361001425,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":995}],"latest":995,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":62755,"population":50869,"povertyRate":13.683703569923544,"medianHomeValue":156900,"medianGrossRent":819,"medianPropertyTax":1039},"hud":{"county":"Gibson County","year":"2027","perUnit":995,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.35987155394633,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":190815,"monthlyRent":995,"grossRent":995,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":38163,"loan":152652,"mortgagePI":990.0979663733125,"monthlyTax":105.26627500000001,"taxRatePct":0.662,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,039 tax ÷ $156,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":95.40750000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.75,"egi":945.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":99.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":399.67377500000003,"noi":545.576225,"totalExpenses":1389.7717413733126,"cashFlow":-444.52174137331247,"annualCf":-5334.260896479749,"cocReturn":-13.977572246625655,"capRate":3.431027277729738},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-519.1467413733125,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-474.3717413733126,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-468.37361637331253,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-601.2472714158175,"delta":-157,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1988-07-01) (home values −6.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-493.7302772073875,"delta":-49,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-601.2472714158175,"baselineCashFlow":-444.52174137331247,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.35987155394633,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":91489.79843909829,"totalCashOutlay":159140.1799144307,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":356959.0950738049,"equityBuilt":218370.20131532656,"netCostOfBuying":-21067.021400895872,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":112556.81983999416},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.0406342124133534,"price":190815,"medianIncome":62755,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.662,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,039 tax ÷ $156,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":190815,"secondary":156900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":995,"secondary":819,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156900,"high":190815}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":819,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156900,"high":190815}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":819,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Gibson County, TN is a moderate market — a 16.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Gibson County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Gibson County's 16.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Gibson County?","a":"The typical home value in Gibson County is about $190,815 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.1% year-over-year, and up 56.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Gibson County?","a":"The typical rent in Gibson County is about $995/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Gibson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Gibson County — roughly $112,557 ahead of renting, with about $218,370 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Gibson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Gibson County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Gibson County?","a":"Gibson County's effective property tax rate is about 0.66% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,039 tax ÷ $156,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $190,815 median home is roughly $105/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Gibson County, TN was $190,815 as of April 2026, up 6.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Gibson County, TN was $995/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Gibson County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=gibson-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=gibson-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T04:08:44.117Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Gibson County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Gibson County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":190815,"countyFmr":995,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Gibson County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}