{"area":{"county":"Geneva County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"geneva-al","metro":"Dothan, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":111747},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":117701},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":123099},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":123943},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":130595},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":130700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":132464},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":134158},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":137914},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":146717},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":146605},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":149682},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":148756},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":151370},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":149981},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":141747},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":160829},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":159346},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":158566},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":162364},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":159235}],"latest":159235,"yoy":-0.9911147865123827,"fiveYr":42.49599541822152,"sinceStart":210.63576598193555,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":966}],"latest":966,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":52771,"population":26887,"povertyRate":19.178596926314206,"medianHomeValue":130700,"medianGrossRent":784,"medianPropertyTax":447},"hud":{"county":"Geneva County","year":"2027","perUnit":966,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.340779150908938,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":159235,"monthlyRent":966,"grossRent":966,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":31847,"loan":127388,"mortgagePI":826.2361432563185,"monthlyTax":45.381975000000004,"taxRatePct":0.342,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.34% ($447 tax ÷ $130,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":95.541,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48.300000000000004,"egi":917.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":96.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":334.12297500000005,"noi":583.577025,"totalExpenses":1160.3591182563187,"cashFlow":-242.6591182563185,"annualCf":-2911.909419075822,"cocReturn":-9.14343397832079,"capRate":4.397854931390712},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-315.10911825631865,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-271.6391182563185,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-266.54436825631853,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-373.446476568392,"delta":-131,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1989-07-01) (home values −6.7% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-290.8600071085442,"delta":-48,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-373.446476568392,"baselineCashFlow":-242.6591182563185,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.340779150908938,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":88823.26160016978,"totalCashOutlay":130910.07346067058,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":261451.85997042558,"equityBuilt":145799.51346920017,"netCostOfBuying":16957.559991470407,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":71865.70160869937},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.0174717174205528,"price":159235,"medianIncome":52771,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.342,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.34% ($447 tax ÷ $130,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":159235,"secondary":130700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":966,"secondary":784,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":130700,"high":159235}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":784,"high":966}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":130700,"high":159235}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":784,"high":966}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Geneva County, AL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Geneva County, AL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Geneva County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Geneva County?","a":"The typical home value in Geneva County is about $159,235 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 42.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Geneva County?","a":"The typical rent in Geneva County is about $966/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Geneva County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Geneva County — roughly $71,866 ahead of renting, with about $145,800 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Geneva County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Geneva County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Geneva County?","a":"Geneva County's effective property tax rate is about 0.34% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.34% ($447 tax ÷ $130,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $159,235 median home is roughly $45/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Geneva County, AL was $159,235 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Geneva County, AL was $966/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Geneva County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=geneva-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=geneva-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:16:22.570Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Dothan, AL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Dothan, AL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":159235,"countyFmr":966,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Dothan, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}