{"area":{"county":"Fillmore County","state":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","slug":"fillmore-ne","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":132498},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":137244},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":141569},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":146068},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":149842},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":151000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":153426},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":155584},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":157775},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":161573},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":160613},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":165590},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":168113},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":167461},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":172114},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":171458},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":173559},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":174531},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":176001},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":177994},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":177074}],"latest":177074,"yoy":2.0252478984091864,"fiveYr":33.6427719663693,"sinceStart":337.27373749845657,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":76295,"population":5541,"povertyRate":8.82517222118786,"medianHomeValue":151000,"medianGrossRent":716,"medianPropertyTax":1491},"hud":{"county":"Fillmore County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nebraska","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8346,"ratePer100k":206.7882850695191},"propertyCrime":{"total":52809,"ratePer100k":1308.445069043402},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.972344752675185,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":177074,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NE","down":35414.8,"loan":141659.2,"mortgagePI":918.7988748137618,"monthlyTax":145.643365,"taxRatePct":0.987,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,491 tax ÷ $151,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":112.14686666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.76,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":460.5902316666667,"noi":502.7097683333333,"totalExpenses":1379.3891064804284,"cashFlow":-416.08910648042854,"annualCf":-4993.069277765142,"cocReturn":-14.098821051552294,"capRate":3.4067775167444116},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-492.13910648042844,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-446.5091064804285,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-444.12582314709516,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-561.5284928323744,"delta":-145,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-442.5302533053808,"delta":-26,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-561.5284928323744,"baselineCashFlow":-416.08910648042854,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.972344752675185,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":162641.0172832123,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","homeValueAfter":265767.9482309933,"equityBuilt":137159.13983863004,"netCostOfBuying":60896.67744458227,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":32340.162371745013},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.3209122485090767,"price":177074,"medianIncome":76295,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.987,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,491 tax ÷ $151,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":177074,"secondary":151000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":716,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.42,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":151000,"high":177074}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":716,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":151000,"high":177074}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":716,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Fillmore County, NE leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Fillmore County, NE a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Fillmore County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Fillmore County?","a":"The typical home value in Fillmore County is about $177,074 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 33.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Fillmore County?","a":"The typical rent in Fillmore County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Fillmore County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Fillmore County — roughly $32,340 ahead of renting, with about $137,159 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Fillmore County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Fillmore County's median home value is 2.3x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Fillmore County?","a":"Fillmore County's effective property tax rate is about 0.99% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,491 tax ÷ $151,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $177,074 median home is roughly $146/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Fillmore County, NE was $177,074 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Fillmore County, NE was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Fillmore County, NE has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=fillmore-ne","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=fillmore-ne"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:31:43.145Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":177074,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}