{"area":{"county":"Falls Church city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"falls-church-va","metro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":1024850},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":1037789},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":1054668},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":1084274},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":1076926},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":1055600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":1049370},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":1072320},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":1082516},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":1092500},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":1124156},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":1061431},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":1114012},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":1114545},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":1114145},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":1137255},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":1108980},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":1139864},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":1132063},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":1080679},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":1097692}],"latest":1097692,"yoy":-1.0178722790311818,"fiveYr":7.107576718544177,"sinceStart":312.30036508961973,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2438}],"latest":2438,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":143262,"population":14710,"povertyRate":4.019171516603903,"medianHomeValue":1055600,"medianGrossRent":2190,"medianPropertyTax":10001},"hud":{"county":"Falls Church city","year":"2027","perUnit":2438,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":37.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":1.3829339559837228,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":1097692,"monthlyRent":2438,"grossRent":2438,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":219538.40000000002,"loan":878153.6,"mortgagePI":5695.687534545262,"monthlyTax":866.2619366666667,"taxRatePct":0.947,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,055,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":512.2562666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":121.9,"egi":2316.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":243.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":121.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":121.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1866.1182033333337,"noi":449.98179666666624,"totalExpenses":7561.805737878595,"cashFlow":-5245.705737878596,"annualCf":-62948.46885454315,"cocReturn":-28.673101769231778,"capRate":0.4919213732085134},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-5428.555737878595,"delta":-183,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-5318.845737878595,"delta":-73,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-5373.769804545262,"delta":-128,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-6147.292932404274,"delta":-902,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −15.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-5532.1732751640975,"delta":-286,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-6147.292932404274,"baselineCashFlow":-5245.705737878596,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":1.3829339559837228,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":224172.99356233323,"totalCashOutlay":886213.071075666,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1208466.1386861128,"equityBuilt":411212.6734578465,"netCostOfBuying":694538.7976178195,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":470365.8040554863},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.662129524926359,"price":1097692,"medianIncome":143262,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.947,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,055,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":1097692,"secondary":1055600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2438,"secondary":2190,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1055600,"high":1097692}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2190,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 1.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1055600,"high":1097692}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2190,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Falls Church city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 37.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Falls Church city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 37.5x, Falls Church city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Falls Church city?","a":"The typical home value in Falls Church city is about $1,097,692 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 7.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Falls Church city?","a":"The typical rent in Falls Church city is about $2,438/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Falls Church city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Falls Church city by about $470,366 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Falls Church city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Falls Church city's median home value is 7.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Falls Church city?","a":"Falls Church city's effective property tax rate is about 0.95% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($10,001 tax ÷ $1,055,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $1,097,692 median home is roughly $866/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Falls Church city, VA was $1,097,692 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Falls Church city, VA was $2,438/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Falls Church city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 37.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=falls-church-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=falls-church-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:59:35.624Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":1097692,"countyFmr":2438,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}