{"area":{"county":"Fairbanks North Star Borough","state":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","slug":"fairbanks-north-star-borough-ak","metro":"Fairbanks-College, AK MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":256748},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":271521},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":276346},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":280951},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":289990},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":298200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":281665},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":294815},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":297578},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":302599},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":298868},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":310613},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":311891},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":316554},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":311660},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":335921},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":330855},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":331960},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":332939},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":349658},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":340182}],"latest":340182,"yoy":2.8190597089359386,"fiveYr":32.49645566859333,"sinceStart":208.52152146705117,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1553}],"latest":1553,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":88267,"population":95460,"povertyRate":6.127790440254316,"medianHomeValue":298200,"medianGrossRent":1459,"medianPropertyTax":3550},"hud":{"county":"Fairbanks North Star Borough","year":"2027","perUnit":1553,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alaska","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8111,"ratePer100k":547.9420590623578},"propertyCrime":{"total":20573,"ratePer100k":1389.8177759943146},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.789898002293192,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":340182,"monthlyRent":1553,"grossRent":1553,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AK","down":68036.40000000001,"loan":272145.6,"mortgagePI":1765.1311814941496,"monthlyTax":337.34715,"taxRatePct":1.19,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,550 tax ÷ $298,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":147.41219999999998,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.65,"egi":1475.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":155.3,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.65,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.65,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":795.35935,"noi":679.99065,"totalExpenses":2560.4905314941498,"cashFlow":-1085.1405314941496,"annualCf":-13021.686377929796,"cocReturn":-19.139293639771935,"capRate":2.3986829991004814},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1201.6155314941495,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1131.7305314941495,"delta":-47,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1121.9935814941496,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1364.548357194013,"delta":-279,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-10-01) (home values −34.7% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1989-01-01 → 1989-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1489.0808150897828,"delta":-404,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1489.0808150897828,"baselineCashFlow":-1085.1405314941496,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.789898002293192,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142797.64520192926,"totalCashOutlay":293195.55107867054,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":504453.01140253816,"equityBuilt":257378.89743588615,"netCostOfBuying":103853.05364278442,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":38944.59155914484},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8540111253356293,"price":340182,"medianIncome":88267,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.19,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,550 tax ÷ $298,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":340182,"secondary":298200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1553,"secondary":1459,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":298200,"high":340182}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1459,"high":1553}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":298200,"high":340182}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1459,"high":1553}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK is a moderate market — a 18.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Fairbanks North Star Borough's 18.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Fairbanks North Star Borough?","a":"The typical home value in Fairbanks North Star Borough is about $340,182 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 32.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Fairbanks North Star Borough?","a":"The typical rent in Fairbanks North Star Borough is about $1,553/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Fairbanks North Star Borough?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Fairbanks North Star Borough — roughly $38,945 ahead of renting, with about $257,379 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Fairbanks North Star Borough affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Fairbanks North Star Borough's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Fairbanks North Star Borough?","a":"Fairbanks North Star Borough's effective property tax rate is about 1.19% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,550 tax ÷ $298,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $340,182 median home is roughly $337/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK was $340,182 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK was $1,553/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=fairbanks-north-star-borough-ak","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=fairbanks-north-star-borough-ak"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:58:15.371Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Fairbanks-College, AK MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Fairbanks-College, AK MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":340182,"countyFmr":1553,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Fairbanks-College, AK MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}