{"area":{"county":"Escambia County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"escambia-fl","metro":"Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":201105},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":216541},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":226063},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":237776},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":253124},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":257200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":257241},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":257254},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":263033},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":266648},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":262300},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":266051},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":274956},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":273389},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":275593},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":264986},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":283813},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":274569},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":277296},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":285882},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":286560}],"latest":286560,"yoy":0.9678908295250745,"fiveYr":42.49272767957037,"sinceStart":460.81570346595686,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1548}],"latest":1548,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":67500,"population":325923,"povertyRate":14.710745953828727,"medianHomeValue":257200,"medianGrossRent":1321,"medianPropertyTax":1495},"hud":{"county":"Escambia County","year":"2027","perUnit":1548,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":95375,"ratePer100k":203.24971087928412},"propertyCrime":{"total":410246,"ratePer100k":874.2582530996885},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.340286768154014,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":286560,"monthlyRent":1548,"grossRent":1548,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":57312,"loan":229248,"mortgagePI":1486.898164420703,"monthlyTax":138.7428,"taxRatePct":0.581,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($1,495 tax ÷ $257,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":250.74,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.4,"egi":1470.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":154.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":699.0827999999999,"noi":771.5172,"totalExpenses":2185.980964420703,"cashFlow":-715.3809644207031,"annualCf":-8584.571573048437,"cocReturn":-14.9786634091437,"capRate":3.23080904522613},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-831.4809644207031,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-761.8209644207029,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-778.0659644207032,"delta":-63,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-950.746464454664,"delta":-235,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-04-01) (home values −12.8% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-863.6881831497818,"delta":-148,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-950.746464454664,"baselineCashFlow":-715.3809644207031,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.340286768154014,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142337.89747107952,"totalCashOutlay":252625.15054177208,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":470494.7989784707,"equityBuilt":262366.33216281375,"netCostOfBuying":47570.81837895833,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":94767.07909212119},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.245333333333333,"price":286560,"medianIncome":67500,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.581,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($1,495 tax ÷ $257,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":286560,"secondary":257200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1548,"secondary":1321,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":257200,"high":286560}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1321,"high":1548}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":257200,"high":286560}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1321,"high":1548}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Escambia County, FL is a moderate market — a 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Escambia County, FL a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Escambia County's 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Escambia County?","a":"The typical home value in Escambia County is about $286,560 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.0% year-over-year, and up 42.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Escambia County?","a":"The typical rent in Escambia County is about $1,548/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Escambia County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Escambia County — roughly $94,767 ahead of renting, with about $262,366 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Escambia County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Escambia County's median home value is 4.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Escambia County?","a":"Escambia County's effective property tax rate is about 0.58% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($1,495 tax ÷ $257,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $286,560 median home is roughly $139/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Escambia County, FL was $286,560 as of April 2026, up 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Escambia County, FL was $1,548/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Escambia County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=escambia-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=escambia-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T01:21:26.086Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":286560,"countyFmr":1548,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}