{"area":{"county":"Douglas County","state":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","slug":"douglas-ks","metro":"Lawrence, KS MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":266327},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":278281},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":280349},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":288145},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":309008},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":309400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":310832},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":308074},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":337846},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":333880},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":334049},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":337899},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":338366},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":345769},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":345239},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":365635},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":359897},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":362528},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":366813},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":365455},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":377217}],"latest":377217,"yoy":4.81248801740498,"fiveYr":41.63678485470869,"sinceStart":462.02899414455356,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1272}],"latest":1272,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":69746,"population":120302,"povertyRate":14.728557517933874,"medianHomeValue":309400,"medianGrossRent":1099,"medianPropertyTax":3776},"hud":{"county":"Douglas County","year":"2027","perUnit":1272,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kansas","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":22775,"ratePer100k":382.4876898583242},"propertyCrime":{"total":92828,"ratePer100k":1558.971120709924},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.211001140567541,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":377217,"monthlyRent":1272,"grossRent":1272,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KS","down":75443.40000000001,"loan":301773.6,"mortgagePI":1957.2978255453806,"monthlyTax":383.50395,"taxRatePct":1.22,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.22% ($3,776 tax ÷ $309,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":245.19105000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.78,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":63.6,"egi":1208.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":127.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":63.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":63.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":883.095,"noi":325.30500000000006,"totalExpenses":2840.3928255453807,"cashFlow":-1631.9928255453806,"annualCf":-19583.913906544567,"cocReturn":-25.958419035388868,"capRate":1.0348579199770958},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1727.3928255453807,"delta":-95,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1670.1528255453807,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1693.2905880453807,"delta":-61,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1941.819276642221,"delta":-310,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-07-01) (home values −5.7% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-07-01 → 1988-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1686.0669808710697,"delta":-54,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1941.819276642221,"baselineCashFlow":-1631.9928255453806,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.211001140567541,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":116959.82272817388,"totalCashOutlay":343023.1263773277,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","homeValueAfter":614139.0562085535,"equityBuilt":340166.4296493629,"netCostOfBuying":78300.09672796482,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":38659.72600020906},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.408439193645513,"price":377217,"medianIncome":69746,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.22,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.22% ($3,776 tax ÷ $309,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":377217,"secondary":309400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1272,"secondary":1099,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":309400,"high":377217}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1099,"high":1272}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":309400,"high":377217}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1099,"high":1272}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Douglas County, KS is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Douglas County, KS a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.7x, Douglas County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Douglas County?","a":"The typical home value in Douglas County is about $377,217 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.8% year-over-year, and up 41.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Douglas County?","a":"The typical rent in Douglas County is about $1,272/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Douglas County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Douglas County — roughly $38,660 ahead of renting, with about $340,166 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Douglas County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Douglas County's median home value is 5.4x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Douglas County?","a":"Douglas County's effective property tax rate is about 1.22% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.22% ($3,776 tax ÷ $309,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $377,217 median home is roughly $384/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Douglas County, KS was $377,217 as of April 2026, up 4.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Douglas County, KS was $1,272/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Douglas County, KS has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=douglas-ks","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=douglas-ks"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:50:42.668Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Lawrence, KS MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lawrence, KS MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":377217,"countyFmr":1272,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lawrence, KS MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}