{"area":{"county":"Doña Ana County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"do-a-ana-nm","metro":"Las Cruces, NM MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":174069},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":187418},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":192828},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":200751},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":213422},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":220800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":221889},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":224301},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":226034},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":237265},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":232340},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":237943},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":235456},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":236896},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":241326},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":239375},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":247809},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":244107},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":242951},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":246812},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":246879}],"latest":246879,"yoy":-0.3752890330859654,"fiveYr":41.82824052530893,"sinceStart":263.35658777817025,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1073}],"latest":1073,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56848,"population":224266,"povertyRate":21.324674373019217,"medianHomeValue":220800,"medianGrossRent":934,"medianPropertyTax":1480},"hud":{"county":"Dona Ana County","year":"2027","perUnit":1073,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":24645,"ratePer100k":578.4516039386816},"propertyCrime":{"total":84484,"ratePer100k":1982.9541613777874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.239973661896748,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":246879,"monthlyRent":1073,"grossRent":1073,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":49375.8,"loan":197503.2,"mortgagePI":1281.0019958613161,"monthlyTax":137.840775,"taxRatePct":0.67,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,480 tax ÷ $220,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":135.78345,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.650000000000006,"egi":1019.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":107.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.650000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.650000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":488.22422500000005,"noi":531.125775,"totalExpenses":1769.226220861316,"cashFlow":-749.8762208613161,"annualCf":-8998.514650335794,"cocReturn":-18.224544514389223,"capRate":2.581632824177026},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-830.351220861316,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-782.0662208613162,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-783.8220833613161,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-952.649808531906,"delta":-203,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1984-07-01) (home values −6.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-802.7808239130406,"delta":-53,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-952.649808531906,"baselineCashFlow":-749.8762208613161,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.239973661896748,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":98661.8630403542,"totalCashOutlay":206265.89809178427,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":402699.45339894196,"equityBuilt":223391.2884108676,"netCostOfBuying":32250.409680916695,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":66411.45335943751},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.3427913031241205,"price":246879,"medianIncome":56848,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.67,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,480 tax ÷ $220,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":246879,"secondary":220800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1073,"secondary":934,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":220800,"high":246879}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":934,"high":1073}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":220800,"high":246879}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":934,"high":1073}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Doña Ana County, NM is a moderate market — a 19.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Doña Ana County, NM a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Doña Ana County's 19.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Doña Ana County?","a":"The typical home value in Doña Ana County is about $246,879 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Doña Ana County?","a":"The typical rent in Doña Ana County is about $1,073/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Doña Ana County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Doña Ana County — roughly $66,411 ahead of renting, with about $223,391 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Doña Ana County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Doña Ana County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Doña Ana County?","a":"Doña Ana County's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,480 tax ÷ $220,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $246,879 median home is roughly $138/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Doña Ana County, NM was $246,879 as of April 2026, down 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Doña Ana County, NM was $1,073/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Doña Ana County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=do-a-ana-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=do-a-ana-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:11:13.817Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Las Cruces, NM MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Las Cruces, NM MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":246879,"countyFmr":1073,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Las Cruces, NM MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}