{"area":{"county":"Dinwiddie County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"dinwiddie-va","metro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":226351},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":230671},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":239201},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":250872},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":257377},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":257800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":262585},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":266663},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":270463},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":279651},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":284846},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":285248},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":293167},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":295844},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":293334},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":300934},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":304526},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":305893},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":309589},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":311108},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":310088}],"latest":310088,"yoy":1.8264450326080532,"fiveYr":36.99431414042792,"sinceStart":347.14771875180253,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1651}],"latest":1651,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":83704,"population":28191,"povertyRate":11.657380093958265,"medianHomeValue":257800,"medianGrossRent":1224,"medianPropertyTax":1409},"hud":{"county":"Dinwiddie County","year":"2027","perUnit":1651,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35022,"ratePer100k":197.19356985225517},"propertyCrime":{"total":228150,"ratePer100k":1284.6128993715954},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.498686565042799,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":310088,"monthlyRent":1651,"grossRent":1651,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":62017.600000000006,"loan":248070.4,"mortgagePI":1608.9798925491589,"monthlyTax":141.34844666666666,"taxRatePct":0.547,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,409 tax ÷ $257,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":144.70773333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.55000000000001,"egi":1568.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":616.2561800000001,"noi":952.19382,"totalExpenses":2225.236072549159,"cashFlow":-656.7860725491589,"annualCf":-7881.432870589907,"cocReturn":-12.708380960549755,"capRate":3.6848655349449184},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-780.611072549159,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-706.3160725491589,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-692.9630058824921,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-911.476249735545,"delta":-255,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-776.3457341223746,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-911.476249735545,"baselineCashFlow":-656.7860725491589,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.498686565042799,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151808.70072658415,"totalCashOutlay":259276.153661541,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":481830.98195099627,"equityBuilt":256614.13375887807,"netCostOfBuying":64679.61990266293,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":87129.08082392122},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.704578036891905,"price":310088,"medianIncome":83704,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.547,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,409 tax ÷ $257,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":310088,"secondary":257800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1651,"secondary":1224,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":257800,"high":310088}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1224,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":257800,"high":310088}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1224,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Dinwiddie County, VA is a moderate market — a 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Dinwiddie County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Dinwiddie County's 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Dinwiddie County?","a":"The typical home value in Dinwiddie County is about $310,088 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Dinwiddie County?","a":"The typical rent in Dinwiddie County is about $1,651/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Dinwiddie County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Dinwiddie County — roughly $87,129 ahead of renting, with about $256,614 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Dinwiddie County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Dinwiddie County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Dinwiddie County?","a":"Dinwiddie County's effective property tax rate is about 0.55% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,409 tax ÷ $257,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $310,088 median home is roughly $141/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Dinwiddie County, VA was $310,088 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Dinwiddie County, VA was $1,651/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Dinwiddie County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=dinwiddie-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=dinwiddie-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:19:24.273Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":310088,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}