{"area":{"county":"DeWitt County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"dewitt-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":143267},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":150404},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":156964},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":163343},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":170872},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":170900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":171166},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":171275},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":172675},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":175213},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":175338},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":176460},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":177505},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":177840},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":179308},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":180240},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":178429},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":177997},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":178316},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":178021},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":179240}],"latest":179240,"yoy":0.4545225271676689,"fiveYr":25.109062100832713,"sinceStart":344.246164522765,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1205}],"latest":1205,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63730,"population":20016,"povertyRate":17.59986812462223,"medianHomeValue":170900,"medianGrossRent":921,"medianPropertyTax":1469},"hud":{"county":"DeWitt County","year":"2027","perUnit":1205,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.582836752764807,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":179240,"monthlyRent":1205,"grossRent":1205,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":35848,"loan":143392,"mortgagePI":930.0377826310959,"monthlyTax":128.45533333333333,"taxRatePct":0.86,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,469 tax ÷ $170,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":126.96166666666669,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":60.25,"egi":1144.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":120.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":60.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":60.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":496.41700000000003,"noi":648.333,"totalExpenses":1426.454782631096,"cashFlow":-281.7047826310959,"annualCf":-3380.4573915731507,"cocReturn":-9.429974870489708,"capRate":4.340546752956929},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-372.0797826310958,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-317.854782631096,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-313.44519929776254,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-428.92320888070196,"delta":-147,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-305.3457547522439,"delta":-24,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-428.92320888070196,"baselineCashFlow":-281.7047826310959,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.582836752764807,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":110799.20313478736,"totalCashOutlay":163684.8500934938,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":245277.5835081765,"equityBuilt":115095.60977828295,"netCostOfBuying":84437.24031521085,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":26361.96281957651},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.812490193001726,"price":179240,"medianIncome":63730,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.86,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,469 tax ÷ $170,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":179240,"secondary":170900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1205,"secondary":921,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":170900,"high":179240}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":921,"high":1205}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":170900,"high":179240}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":921,"high":1205}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"DeWitt County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.4 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is DeWitt County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — DeWitt County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.4 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in DeWitt County?","a":"The typical home value in DeWitt County is about $179,240 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in DeWitt County?","a":"The typical rent in DeWitt County is about $1,205/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in DeWitt County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in DeWitt County — roughly $26,362 ahead of renting, with about $115,096 in equity built."},{"q":"Is DeWitt County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"DeWitt County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in DeWitt County?","a":"DeWitt County's effective property tax rate is about 0.86% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,469 tax ÷ $170,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $179,240 median home is roughly $128/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in DeWitt County, TX was $179,240 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in DeWitt County, TX was $1,205/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","DeWitt County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.4 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=dewitt-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=dewitt-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:56:44.311Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":179240,"countyFmr":1205,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}