{"area":{"county":"Deer Lodge County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"deer-lodge-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":188976},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":204610},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":212737},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":224221},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":233218},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":231700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":234772},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":237052},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":241431},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":241556},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":244209},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":248229},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":251920},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":256893},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":263022},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":261597},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":258472},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":260995},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":259546},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":261028},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":265660}],"latest":265660,"yoy":2.780958865950664,"fiveYr":40.57869782406232,"sinceStart":642.0670391061453,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1082}],"latest":1082,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57527,"population":9597,"povertyRate":16.289445048966268,"medianHomeValue":231700,"medianGrossRent":696,"medianPropertyTax":1803},"hud":{"county":"Deer Lodge County","year":"2027","perUnit":1082,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.050315995065981,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":265660,"monthlyRent":1082,"grossRent":1082,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":53132,"loan":212528,"mortgagePI":1378.4525626744971,"monthlyTax":172.23623333333333,"taxRatePct":0.778,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,803 tax ÷ $231,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":137.25766666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.1,"egi":1027.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":525.8939,"noi":502.00610000000006,"totalExpenses":1904.3464626744972,"cashFlow":-876.4464626744971,"annualCf":-10517.357552093965,"cocReturn":-19.79477066945337,"capRate":2.2675875931641953},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-957.5964626744972,"delta":-81,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-908.9064626744971,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-910.7608793411637,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1094.645788257349,"delta":-218,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-937.8857728103105,"delta":-61,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1094.645788257349,"baselineCashFlow":-876.4464626744971,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.050315995065981,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99489.40895588376,"totalCashOutlay":223723.0602080565,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":427998.1023994846,"equityBuilt":235049.3011214017,"netCostOfBuying":41805.75908665481,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57683.649869228946},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.618005458306534,"price":265660,"medianIncome":57527,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.778,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,803 tax ÷ $231,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":265660,"secondary":231700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1082,"secondary":696,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.55,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":231700,"high":265660}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":696,"high":1082}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":231700,"high":265660}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":696,"high":1082}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Deer Lodge County, MT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Deer Lodge County, MT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.5x, Deer Lodge County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Deer Lodge County?","a":"The typical home value in Deer Lodge County is about $265,660 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Deer Lodge County?","a":"The typical rent in Deer Lodge County is about $1,082/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Deer Lodge County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Deer Lodge County — roughly $57,684 ahead of renting, with about $235,049 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Deer Lodge County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Deer Lodge County's median home value is 4.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Deer Lodge County?","a":"Deer Lodge County's effective property tax rate is about 0.78% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,803 tax ÷ $231,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $265,660 median home is roughly $172/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Deer Lodge County, MT was $265,660 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Deer Lodge County, MT was $1,082/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Deer Lodge County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=deer-lodge-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=deer-lodge-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:01:01.618Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":265660,"countyFmr":1082,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}