{"area":{"county":"Custer County","state":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","slug":"custer-sd","metro":"Custer County, SD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":311014},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":325300},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":340309},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":355843},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":363791},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":372100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":370242},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":378639},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":382243},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":385001},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":395026},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":397222},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":403933},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":405105},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":411733},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":416041},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":420799},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":431493},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":419450},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":425486},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":428404}],"latest":428404,"yoy":1.8072761579756607,"fiveYr":37.7442816079019,"sinceStart":623.899966204799,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1242}],"latest":1242,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":84112,"population":8892,"povertyRate":8.97362712638429,"medianHomeValue":372100,"medianGrossRent":1112,"medianPropertyTax":2879},"hud":{"county":"Custer County","year":"2027","perUnit":1242,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4636,"ratePer100k":247.8895169897358},"propertyCrime":{"total":20162,"ratePer100k":1078.0734343285274},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":28.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.61505218448859,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":428404,"monthlyRent":1242,"grossRent":1242,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SD","down":85680.8,"loan":342723.2,"mortgagePI":2222.896151697679,"monthlyTax":276.32058,"taxRatePct":0.774,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($2,879 tax ÷ $372,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":242.7622666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.68,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":62.1,"egi":1179.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":124.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":62.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":62.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":767.4828466666668,"noi":412.4171533333333,"totalExpenses":2990.378998364346,"cashFlow":-1810.478998364346,"annualCf":-21725.74798037215,"cocReturn":-25.356611960173282,"capRate":1.1552193350202145},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1903.628998364346,"delta":-93,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1847.738998364346,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1871.1695650310126,"delta":-61,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2162.3477926013256,"delta":-352,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.8% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2025-07-01 → 2025-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1836.477228926603,"delta":-26,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2162.3477926013256,"baselineCashFlow":-1810.478998364346,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.61505218448859,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":114201.33634307544,"totalCashOutlay":373899.0722741543,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","homeValueAfter":670784.75520059,"equityBuilt":359635.02147049987,"netCostOfBuying":99944.85080365441,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":14256.485539421032},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.093256610233974,"price":428404,"medianIncome":84112,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.774,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($2,879 tax ÷ $372,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":428404,"secondary":372100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1242,"secondary":1112,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":372100,"high":428404}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1112,"high":1242}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":372100,"high":428404}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1112,"high":1242}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Custer County, SD is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 28.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Custer County, SD a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 28.7x, Custer County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Custer County?","a":"The typical home value in Custer County is about $428,404 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Custer County?","a":"The typical rent in Custer County is about $1,242/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Custer County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Custer County — roughly $14,256 ahead of renting, with about $359,635 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Custer County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Custer County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Custer County?","a":"Custer County's effective property tax rate is about 0.77% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($2,879 tax ÷ $372,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $428,404 median home is roughly $276/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Custer County, SD was $428,404 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Custer County, SD was $1,242/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Custer County, SD has a price-to-rent ratio of 28.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=custer-sd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=custer-sd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:14:47.409Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Custer County, SD HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Custer County, SD HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":428404,"countyFmr":1242,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Custer County, SD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}