{"area":{"county":"Cumberland County","state":"ME","stateName":"Maine","slug":"cumberland-me","metro":"Cumberland County, ME (part) HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":361725},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":387508},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":399014},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":411390},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":445594},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":451200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":450320},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":460349},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":478244},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":498159},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":490402},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":499289},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":515892},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":518890},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":522987},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":532222},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":539545},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":548965},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":550617},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":552366},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":563916}],"latest":563916,"yoy":4.516954100214069,"fiveYr":55.896330085009325,"sinceStart":913.6904547905806,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1941}],"latest":1941,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":95677,"population":308827,"povertyRate":7.347634322373697,"medianHomeValue":451200,"medianGrossRent":1589,"medianPropertyTax":4707},"hud":{"county":"Cumberland County","year":"2027","perUnit":1941,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Maine","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":2337,"ratePer100k":82.5868593245759},"propertyCrime":{"total":23331,"ratePer100k":824.4903786485581},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":9.287995040905116,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":563916,"monthlyRent":1941,"grossRent":1941,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ME","down":112783.20000000001,"loan":451132.8,"mortgagePI":2926.038753794895,"monthlyTax":490.13698999999997,"taxRatePct":1.043,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($4,707 tax ÷ $451,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":197.3706,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ME avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":97.05000000000001,"egi":1843.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":194.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":97.05000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":97.05000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1075.70759,"noi":768.2424100000001,"totalExpenses":4001.746343794895,"cashFlow":-2157.7963437948947,"annualCf":-25893.556125538737,"cocReturn":-22.95869963393372,"capRate":1.6348018002681253},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2303.371343794895,"delta":-146,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2216.026343794895,"delta":-58,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2207.138993794895,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2620.96765631985,"delta":-463,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1982-04-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1990-01-01 → 1991-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2264.7701782908666,"delta":-107,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2620.96765631985,"baselineCashFlow":-2157.7963437948947,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.287995040905116,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":178474.0691158691,"totalCashOutlay":497803.018335239,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ME avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1050078.1634697216,"equityBuilt":640506.0930732326,"netCostOfBuying":-29919.87473799364,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":208393.94385386273},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.893955705132895,"price":563916,"medianIncome":95677,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.043,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($4,707 tax ÷ $451,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":563916,"secondary":451200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1941,"secondary":1589,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":451200,"high":563916}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1589,"high":1941}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":451200,"high":563916}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1589,"high":1941}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cumberland County, ME is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cumberland County, ME a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.2x, Cumberland County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cumberland County?","a":"The typical home value in Cumberland County is about $563,916 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.5% year-over-year, and up 55.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cumberland County?","a":"The typical rent in Cumberland County is about $1,941/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cumberland County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cumberland County — roughly $208,394 ahead of renting, with about $640,506 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cumberland County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cumberland County's median home value is 5.9x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cumberland County?","a":"Cumberland County's effective property tax rate is about 1.04% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.04% ($4,707 tax ÷ $451,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $563,916 median home is roughly $490/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cumberland County, ME was $563,916 as of April 2026, up 4.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cumberland County, ME was $1,941/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cumberland County, ME has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cumberland-me","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cumberland-me"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:02:11.589Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Cumberland County, ME (part) HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cumberland County, ME (part) HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":563916,"countyFmr":1941,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cumberland County, ME (part) HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"ME","stateName":"Maine","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}