{"area":{"county":"Cumberland County","state":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","slug":"cumberland-ky","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":123917},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":129383},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":132471},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":137730},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":141235},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":141100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":145035},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":147899},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":149075},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":151361},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":153525},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":155739},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":158700},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":160910},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":163601},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":163652},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":165773},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":167397},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":168245},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":171454},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":172821}],"latest":172821,"yoy":4.251597063454242,"fiveYr":39.465125850367585,"sinceStart":309.76147572078906,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":40000,"population":5948,"povertyRate":24.798628963153384,"medianHomeValue":141100,"medianGrossRent":523,"medianPropertyTax":760},"hud":{"county":"Cumberland County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kentucky","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":17727,"ratePer100k":192.39769179207374},"propertyCrime":{"total":107926,"ratePer100k":1171.3608215914342},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.880156341698274,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":172821,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KY","down":34564.200000000004,"loan":138256.8,"mortgagePI":896.7309731761247,"monthlyTax":77.6254325,"taxRatePct":0.539,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($760 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":83.53014999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":342.9555825,"noi":520.5944175,"totalExpenses":1239.6865556761247,"cashFlow":-376.1365556761248,"annualCf":-4513.638668113497,"cocReturn":-13.058710076071476,"capRate":3.6147997118405746},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-444.3115556761246,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-403.40655567612475,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-397.0190931761248,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-518.0827487294789,"delta":-142,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.7% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-10-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-394.5572927533424,"delta":-18,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-518.0827487294789,"baselineCashFlow":-376.1365556761248,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.880156341698274,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":145801.74089745627,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":275344.2912536833,"equityBuilt":149824.4358532483,"netCostOfBuying":30541.505044207996,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":53040.63242427475},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.320525,"price":172821,"medianIncome":40000,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.539,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($760 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":172821,"secondary":141100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":523,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.74,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":141100,"high":172821}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.74,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":523,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":141100,"high":172821}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.74,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":523,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cumberland County, KY is a moderate market — a 15.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cumberland County, KY a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Cumberland County's 15.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cumberland County?","a":"The typical home value in Cumberland County is about $172,821 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 4.3% year-over-year, and up 39.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cumberland County?","a":"The typical rent in Cumberland County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cumberland County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cumberland County — roughly $53,041 ahead of renting, with about $149,824 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cumberland County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cumberland County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cumberland County?","a":"Cumberland County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($760 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $172,821 median home is roughly $78/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cumberland County, KY was $172,821 as of April 2026, up 4.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cumberland County, KY was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cumberland County, KY has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cumberland-ky","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cumberland-ky"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:14:50.518Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":172821,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}