{"area":{"county":"Crow Wing County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"crow-wing-mn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":279001},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":286253},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":294040},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":301875},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":309502},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":306800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":307304},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":309926},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":316794},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":319264},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":320232},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":324789},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":327275},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":331513},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":334862},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":337229},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":339428},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":342538},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":345624},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":347119},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":347958}],"latest":347958,"yoy":2.5130513687733482,"fiveYr":24.71568202264508,"sinceStart":335.2195121951219,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1172}],"latest":1172,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72589,"population":67686,"povertyRate":9.867315081652258,"medianHomeValue":306800,"medianGrossRent":971,"medianPropertyTax":2283},"hud":{"county":"Crow Wing County","year":"2027","perUnit":1172,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.516976961044383,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":347958,"monthlyRent":1172,"grossRent":1172,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":69591.6,"loan":278366.4,"mortgagePI":1805.4791718854656,"monthlyTax":215.73396,"taxRatePct":0.744,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.74% ($2,283 tax ÷ $306,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":156.58110000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":58.6,"egi":1113.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":117.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":58.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":58.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":606.71506,"noi":506.6849400000001,"totalExpenses":2412.1942318854653,"cashFlow":-1298.7942318854655,"annualCf":-15585.530782625585,"cocReturn":-22.39570692817177,"capRate":1.7474003414205166},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1386.6942318854658,"delta":-88,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1333.9542318854656,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1337.9395068854656,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1584.5888600988133,"delta":-286,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1383.0334739974048,"delta":-84,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1584.5888600988133,"baselineCashFlow":-1298.7942318854655,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.516976961044383,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":107764.86811117905,"totalCashOutlay":293558.6428190116,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":474061.51942484063,"equityBuilt":221339.69831846718,"netCostOfBuying":141810.5445005444,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":34045.676389365355},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.7935362107206325,"price":347958,"medianIncome":72589,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.744,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.74% ($2,283 tax ÷ $306,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":347958,"secondary":306800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1172,"secondary":971,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":306800,"high":347958}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":971,"high":1172}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":306800,"high":347958}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":971,"high":1172}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Crow Wing County, MN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Crow Wing County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.7x, Crow Wing County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Crow Wing County?","a":"The typical home value in Crow Wing County is about $347,958 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.5% year-over-year, and up 24.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Crow Wing County?","a":"The typical rent in Crow Wing County is about $1,172/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Crow Wing County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Crow Wing County by about $34,046 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Crow Wing County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Crow Wing County's median home value is 4.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Crow Wing County?","a":"Crow Wing County's effective property tax rate is about 0.74% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.74% ($2,283 tax ÷ $306,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $347,958 median home is roughly $216/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Crow Wing County, MN was $347,958 as of April 2026, up 2.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Crow Wing County, MN was $1,172/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Crow Wing County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=crow-wing-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=crow-wing-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:29:02.183Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":347958,"countyFmr":1172,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}