{"area":{"county":"Crittenden County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"crittenden-ar","metro":"Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":136736},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141648},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":147955},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":154731},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":158528},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":160200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":162976},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":162658},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":162028},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":164080},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":164127},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":164606},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":164179},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":164559},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":164799},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":165867},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":166002},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":164023},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":166669},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":161705},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":164794}],"latest":164794,"yoy":-0.7277020758786039,"fiveYr":20.51983384039317,"sinceStart":216.40043007449506,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1301}],"latest":1301,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":55358,"population":47266,"povertyRate":20.99116569704805,"medianHomeValue":160200,"medianGrossRent":911,"medianPropertyTax":987},"hud":{"county":"Crittenden County","year":"2027","perUnit":1301,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.8039606591268704,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":164794,"monthlyRent":1301,"grossRent":1301,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":32958.8,"loan":131835.2,"mortgagePI":855.0805978069003,"monthlyTax":84.59425333333333,"taxRatePct":0.616,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($987 tax ÷ $160,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":96.12983333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.05,"egi":1235.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":130.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.05,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.05,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":440.92408666666665,"noi":795.0259133333334,"totalExpenses":1296.004684473567,"cashFlow":-60.05468447356691,"annualCf":-720.6562136828029,"cocReturn":-2.1865365659028932,"capRate":5.789234413874292},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-157.62968447356695,"delta":-98,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-99.08468447356688,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-84.08714280690026,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-195.40791665041138,"delta":-135,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-158.07886979229602,"delta":-98,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-195.40791665041138,"baselineCashFlow":-60.05468447356691,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.8039606591268704,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":119626.35956710235,"totalCashOutlay":134932.77747622685,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":214012.36497909247,"equityBuilt":94322.51796478702,"netCostOfBuying":73569.05951143983,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":46057.30005566252},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.9768777773763504,"price":164794,"medianIncome":55358,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.616,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($987 tax ÷ $160,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":164794,"secondary":160200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.03,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1301,"secondary":911,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.43,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":160200,"high":164794}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":911,"high":1301}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":160200,"high":164794}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":911,"high":1301}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Crittenden County, AR leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Crittenden County, AR a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Crittenden County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Crittenden County?","a":"The typical home value in Crittenden County is about $164,794 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.7% year-over-year, and up 20.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Crittenden County?","a":"The typical rent in Crittenden County is about $1,301/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Crittenden County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Crittenden County — roughly $46,057 ahead of renting, with about $94,323 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Crittenden County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Crittenden County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Crittenden County?","a":"Crittenden County's effective property tax rate is about 0.62% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($987 tax ÷ $160,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $164,794 median home is roughly $85/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Crittenden County, AR was $164,794 as of April 2026, down 0.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Crittenden County, AR was $1,301/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Crittenden County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=crittenden-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=crittenden-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:26:10.432Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":164794,"countyFmr":1301,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}