{"area":{"county":"Crawford County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"crawford-ga","metro":"Macon-Bibb County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":133179},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":138383},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":142914},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":147977},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":158755},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":164100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":164848},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":164478},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":170888},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":173361},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":171458},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":176114},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":181311},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":186641},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":187107},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":185294},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":198337},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":192859},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":198574},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":196360},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":203719}],"latest":203719,"yoy":2.713563278662075,"fiveYr":52.966308502091174,"sinceStart":417.0008121002944,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1309}],"latest":1309,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":67116,"population":12225,"povertyRate":11.601198402130493,"medianHomeValue":164100,"medianGrossRent":914,"medianPropertyTax":1421},"hud":{"county":"Crawford County","year":"2027","perUnit":1309,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.874008222131803,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":203719,"monthlyRent":1309,"grossRent":1309,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":40743.8,"loan":162975.2,"mortgagePI":1057.0540450782426,"monthlyTax":147.01721166666667,"taxRatePct":0.866,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($1,421 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":112.04545,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.45,"egi":1243.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":130.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":520.8626616666667,"noi":722.6873383333333,"totalExpenses":1577.9167067449093,"cashFlow":-334.36670674490927,"annualCf":-4012.400480938911,"cocReturn":-9.847879876052088,"capRate":4.256965751844452},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-432.5417067449091,"delta":-98,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-373.63670674490925,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-362.3780692449093,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-501.6909121518694,"delta":-167,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-04-01) (home values −10.8% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1980-07-01 → 1980-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-440.237557567371,"delta":-106,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-501.6909121518694,"baselineCashFlow":-334.36670674490927,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.874008222131803,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":120361.95593646195,"totalCashOutlay":176773.3720340358,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":369403.51089055126,"equityBuilt":221442.44468724725,"netCostOfBuying":-3925.272653211432,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":124287.22858967338},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.0353268967161333,"price":203719,"medianIncome":67116,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.866,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($1,421 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":203719,"secondary":164100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1309,"secondary":914,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.43,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164100,"high":203719}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":914,"high":1309}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164100,"high":203719}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.43,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":914,"high":1309}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Crawford County, GA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Crawford County, GA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Crawford County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Crawford County?","a":"The typical home value in Crawford County is about $203,719 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.7% year-over-year, and up 53.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Crawford County?","a":"The typical rent in Crawford County is about $1,309/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Crawford County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Crawford County — roughly $124,287 ahead of renting, with about $221,442 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Crawford County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Crawford County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Crawford County?","a":"Crawford County's effective property tax rate is about 0.87% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($1,421 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $203,719 median home is roughly $147/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Crawford County, GA was $203,719 as of April 2026, up 2.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Crawford County, GA was $1,309/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Crawford County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=crawford-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=crawford-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T06:08:34.802Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Macon-Bibb County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon-Bibb County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":203719,"countyFmr":1309,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon-Bibb County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}