{"area":{"county":"Craighead County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"craighead-ar","metro":"Jonesboro, AR HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":177212},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":184090},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":188985},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":192805},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":205583},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":210400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":215546},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":205618},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":207281},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":211673},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":214004},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":217443},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":220882},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":223559},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":222433},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":221627},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":231087},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":233643},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":229034},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":233279},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":228887}],"latest":228887,"yoy":-0.9520223984906118,"fiveYr":29.159989165519267,"sinceStart":205.7289023054524,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1079}],"latest":1079,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59548,"population":113249,"povertyRate":20.117494426780688,"medianHomeValue":210400,"medianGrossRent":958,"medianPropertyTax":1125},"hud":{"county":"Craighead County","year":"2027","perUnit":1079,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.251584576653245,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":228887,"monthlyRent":1079,"grossRent":1079,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":45777.4,"loan":183109.6,"mortgagePI":1187.6453802336734,"monthlyTax":102.04545416666667,"taxRatePct":0.535,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($1,125 tax ÷ $210,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":133.51741666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.95,"egi":1025.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":107.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":451.3628708333333,"noi":573.6871291666666,"totalExpenses":1639.0082510670068,"cashFlow":-613.9582510670068,"annualCf":-7367.499012804082,"cocReturn":-16.09418405764434,"capRate":3.0077049155260016},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-694.8832510670068,"delta":-81,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-646.3282510670068,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-647.3376052336735,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-801.9541444445654,"delta":-188,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1990-10-01) (home values −4.6% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2022-10-01 → 2023-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-651.2321230015359,"delta":-37,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-801.9541444445654,"baselineCashFlow":-613.9582510670068,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.251584576653245,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99213.56031737392,"totalCashOutlay":189295.248908675,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":327507.7846559155,"equityBuilt":161267.2054263117,"netCostOfBuying":73805.4434823633,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":25408.116835010616},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8437395042654665,"price":228887,"medianIncome":59548,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.535,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($1,125 tax ÷ $210,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":228887,"secondary":210400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1079,"secondary":958,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":210400,"high":228887}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":958,"high":1079}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":210400,"high":228887}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":958,"high":1079}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Craighead County, AR is a moderate market — a 17.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Craighead County, AR a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Craighead County's 17.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Craighead County?","a":"The typical home value in Craighead County is about $228,887 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 29.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Craighead County?","a":"The typical rent in Craighead County is about $1,079/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Craighead County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Craighead County — roughly $25,408 ahead of renting, with about $161,267 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Craighead County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Craighead County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Craighead County?","a":"Craighead County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($1,125 tax ÷ $210,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $228,887 median home is roughly $102/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Craighead County, AR was $228,887 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Craighead County, AR was $1,079/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Craighead County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=craighead-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=craighead-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:12:57.634Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Jonesboro, AR HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jonesboro, AR HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":228887,"countyFmr":1079,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jonesboro, AR HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}