{"area":{"county":"Coos County","state":"NH","stateName":"New Hampshire","slug":"coos-nh","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":162407},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":169644},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":175297},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":185143},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":188939},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":188900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":191846},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":195682},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":201208},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":206637},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":209451},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":214372},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":216619},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":222082},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":225146},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":226685},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":230071},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":230599},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":233657},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":234781},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":237263}],"latest":237263,"yoy":3.1259915417414623,"fiveYr":46.09160935181366,"sinceStart":385.57774958045104,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1195}],"latest":1195,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57677,"population":31271,"povertyRate":13.2110342939284,"medianHomeValue":188900,"medianGrossRent":876,"medianPropertyTax":3579},"hud":{"county":"Coos County","year":"2027","perUnit":1195,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Hampshire","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":3299,"ratePer100k":116.54426986551661},"propertyCrime":{"total":22410,"ratePer100k":791.681445191339},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.877174378071872,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":237263,"monthlyRent":1195,"grossRent":1195,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NH","down":47452.600000000006,"loan":189810.4,"mortgagePI":1231.1066414885163,"monthlyTax":374.6778208333333,"taxRatePct":1.895,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.90% ($3,579 tax ÷ $188,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":86.99643333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NH avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":59.75,"egi":1135.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":119.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":59.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":59.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":700.6742541666667,"noi":434.57574583333326,"totalExpenses":1931.780895655183,"cashFlow":-796.530895655183,"annualCf":-9558.370747862196,"cocReturn":-20.142986365051012,"capRate":2.1979444540446673},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-886.1558956551829,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-832.3808956551829,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-818.2800039885162,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-991.4064003821431,"delta":-195,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-869.1102835256058,"delta":-73,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-991.4064003821431,"baselineCashFlow":-796.530895655183,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.877174378071872,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":109879.70767308789,"totalCashOutlay":221942.44204042188,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NH avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":403400.9853833811,"equityBuilt":231076.91914216397,"netCostOfBuying":38318.12289825792,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":71561.58477482997},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.113650155174506,"price":237263,"medianIncome":57677,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.895,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.90% ($3,579 tax ÷ $188,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":237263,"secondary":188900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1195,"secondary":876,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.36,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":188900,"high":237263}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":876,"high":1195}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":188900,"high":237263}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":876,"high":1195}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Coos County, NH is a moderate market — a 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Coos County, NH a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Coos County's 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Coos County?","a":"The typical home value in Coos County is about $237,263 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 46.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Coos County?","a":"The typical rent in Coos County is about $1,195/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Coos County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Coos County — roughly $71,562 ahead of renting, with about $231,077 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Coos County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Coos County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Coos County?","a":"Coos County's effective property tax rate is about 1.90% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.90% ($3,579 tax ÷ $188,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $237,263 median home is roughly $375/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Coos County, NH was $237,263 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Coos County, NH was $1,195/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Coos County, NH has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=coos-nh","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=coos-nh"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T05:08:45.424Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":237263,"countyFmr":1195,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NH","stateName":"New Hampshire","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}