{"area":{"county":"Colonial Heights city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"colonial-heights-va","metro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":216517},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":220650},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":228809},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":239973},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":246195},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":246600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":251177},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":255078},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":258713},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":267502},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":272471},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":272855},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":280431},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":282991},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":280590},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":287860},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":291296},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":292603},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":296139},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":297592},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":296617}],"latest":296617,"yoy":1.8266642864989562,"fiveYr":36.994785628842074,"sinceStart":347.15007160624106,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1651}],"latest":1651,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":76505,"population":18352,"povertyRate":7.91243934715483,"medianHomeValue":246600,"medianGrossRent":1234,"medianPropertyTax":2071},"hud":{"county":"Colonial Heights city","year":"2027","perUnit":1651,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":15,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.498759881519822,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":296617,"monthlyRent":1651,"grossRent":1651,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":59323.4,"loan":237293.6,"mortgagePI":1539.0817728781956,"monthlyTax":207.63189999999997,"taxRatePct":0.84,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,071 tax ÷ $246,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":138.4212666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.55000000000001,"egi":1568.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":676.2531666666666,"noi":892.1968333333334,"totalExpenses":2215.334939544862,"cashFlow":-646.8849395448622,"annualCf":-7762.619274538346,"cocReturn":-13.085256870877842,"capRate":3.6094903528793028},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-770.7099395448622,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-696.4149395448621,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-681.490256211529,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-890.5107370168516,"delta":-244,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-766.4403022178069,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-890.5107370168516,"baselineCashFlow":-646.8849395448622,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.498759881519822,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151808.70072658415,"totalCashOutlay":248012.68059030874,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":460901.2573857715,"equityBuilt":245468.39361741682,"netCostOfBuying":61867.68697289191,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":89941.01375369224},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8770930004574864,"price":296617,"medianIncome":76505,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.84,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,071 tax ÷ $246,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":296617,"secondary":246600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1651,"secondary":1234,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.34,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":246600,"high":296617}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1234,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":246600,"high":296617}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1234,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Colonial Heights city, VA is a moderate market — a 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Colonial Heights city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Colonial Heights city's 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Colonial Heights city?","a":"The typical home value in Colonial Heights city is about $296,617 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Colonial Heights city?","a":"The typical rent in Colonial Heights city is about $1,651/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Colonial Heights city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Colonial Heights city — roughly $89,941 ahead of renting, with about $245,468 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Colonial Heights city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Colonial Heights city's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Colonial Heights city?","a":"Colonial Heights city's effective property tax rate is about 0.84% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.84% ($2,071 tax ÷ $246,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $296,617 median home is roughly $208/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Colonial Heights city, VA was $296,617 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Colonial Heights city, VA was $1,651/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Colonial Heights city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=colonial-heights-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=colonial-heights-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:28:57.534Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":296617,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}