{"area":{"county":"Colfax County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"colfax-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":142077},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":148644},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":153511},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":159273},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":166268},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":167200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":168560},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":170931},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":172500},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177596},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":177461},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":181280},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":182845},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":184512},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":188113},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":189915},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":192705},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":189552},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":189338},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":193623},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":190297}],"latest":190297,"yoy":-1.2495783710853379,"fiveYr":33.93934275076191,"sinceStart":308.57308485056683,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":53554,"population":12322,"povertyRate":18.151390319258496,"medianHomeValue":167200,"medianGrossRent":729,"medianPropertyTax":867},"hud":{"county":"Colfax County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":24645,"ratePer100k":578.4516039386816},"propertyCrime":{"total":84484,"ratePer100k":1982.9541613777874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.6,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.6× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.019342791785176,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":190297,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":38059.4,"loan":152237.6,"mortgagePI":987.4101758611338,"monthlyTax":82.3034525,"taxRatePct":0.519,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($867 tax ÷ $167,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.66335,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":389.7668025,"noi":573.5331974999999,"totalExpenses":1377.1769783611337,"cashFlow":-413.87697836113387,"annualCf":-4966.523740333607,"cocReturn":-13.04940104240636,"capRate":3.6166615185735975},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-489.92697836113376,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-444.2969783611337,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-440.0428158611338,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-570.1770501086307,"delta":-156,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-469.22109166975326,"delta":-55,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-570.1770501086307,"baselineCashFlow":-413.87697836113387,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.019342791785176,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":157602.11410535878,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":286502.024975417,"equityBuilt":148289.3545063389,"netCostOfBuying":47372.159599019884,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":45864.680217307396},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.5533666952982035,"price":190297,"medianIncome":53554,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.519,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($867 tax ÷ $167,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":190297,"secondary":167200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":729,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.39,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167200,"high":190297}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":729,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167200,"high":190297}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":729,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Colfax County, NM is a moderate market — a 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Colfax County, NM a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Colfax County's 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Colfax County?","a":"The typical home value in Colfax County is about $190,297 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Colfax County?","a":"The typical rent in Colfax County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Colfax County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Colfax County — roughly $45,865 ahead of renting, with about $148,289 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Colfax County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Colfax County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Colfax County?","a":"Colfax County's effective property tax rate is about 0.52% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($867 tax ÷ $167,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $190,297 median home is roughly $82/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Colfax County, NM was $190,297 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Colfax County, NM was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Colfax County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=colfax-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=colfax-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:10:24.745Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":190297,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}