{"area":{"county":"Codington County","state":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","slug":"codington-sd","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":198331},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":209395},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":216726},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":225832},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":234652},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":237700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":236637},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":243866},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":246089},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":248904},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":252001},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":252832},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":256300},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":257482},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":261425},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":261803},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":265325},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":265180},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":267063},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":269927},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":268287}],"latest":268287,"yoy":1.1163667200603034,"fiveYr":35.27234774190621,"sinceStart":397.33432199462413,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1233}],"latest":1233,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72727,"population":28767,"povertyRate":8.833386248985784,"medianHomeValue":237700,"medianGrossRent":938,"medianPropertyTax":2308},"hud":{"county":"Codington County","year":"2027","perUnit":1233,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4636,"ratePer100k":247.8895169897358},"propertyCrime":{"total":20162,"ratePer100k":1078.0734343285274},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.22956383202522,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":268287,"monthlyRent":1233,"grossRent":1233,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SD","down":53657.4,"loan":214629.6,"mortgagePI":1392.0835002719748,"monthlyTax":217.0888975,"taxRatePct":0.971,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,308 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":152.0293,"insuranceRatePct":0.68,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":61.650000000000006,"egi":1171.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":123.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":61.650000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":61.650000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":615.7181975,"noi":555.6318024999999,"totalExpenses":2007.801697771975,"cashFlow":-836.4516977719749,"annualCf":-10037.420373263698,"cocReturn":-18.706497842354825,"capRate":2.485242158583904},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-928.9266977719747,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-873.4416977719749,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-874.4590227719748,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1056.8087047080835,"delta":-220,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.2% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-865.7181852780254,"delta":-29,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1056.8087047080835,"baselineCashFlow":-836.4516977719749,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.22956383202522,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":113373.79042754589,"totalCashOutlay":233409.95872581177,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","homeValueAfter":409559.88971055014,"equityBuilt":214703.09889336643,"netCostOfBuying":72364.25983244533,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41009.53059510056},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6889600836003136,"price":268287,"medianIncome":72727,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.971,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,308 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":268287,"secondary":237700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1233,"secondary":938,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237700,"high":268287}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":938,"high":1233}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":237700,"high":268287}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":938,"high":1233}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Codington County, SD is a moderate market — a 18.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Codington County, SD a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Codington County's 18.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Codington County?","a":"The typical home value in Codington County is about $268,287 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 35.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Codington County?","a":"The typical rent in Codington County is about $1,233/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Codington County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Codington County — roughly $41,010 ahead of renting, with about $214,703 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Codington County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Codington County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Codington County?","a":"Codington County's effective property tax rate is about 0.97% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,308 tax ÷ $237,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $268,287 median home is roughly $217/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Codington County, SD was $268,287 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Codington County, SD was $1,233/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Codington County, SD has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=codington-sd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=codington-sd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T13:59:25.775Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":268287,"countyFmr":1233,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}