{"area":{"county":"Coconino County","state":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","slug":"coconino-az","metro":"Flagstaff, AZ MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":349314},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":382019},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":401618},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":427251},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":451816},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":448000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":444506},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":439103},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":456658},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":469475},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":465058},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":469299},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":486273},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":493428},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":488441},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":485164},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":497991},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":500677},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":513120},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":492215},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":512384}],"latest":512384,"yoy":2.8902128753330882,"fiveYr":46.68292710856135,"sinceStart":610.4701950942193,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1729}],"latest":1729,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72966,"population":144508,"povertyRate":16.77267959948993,"medianHomeValue":448000,"medianGrossRent":1473,"medianPropertyTax":2051},"hud":{"county":"Coconino County","year":"2027","perUnit":1729,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arizona","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":53596,"ratePer100k":351.5036691589437},"propertyCrime":{"total":208645,"ratePer100k":1368.3760551471717},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.964373614900766,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":512384,"monthlyRent":1729,"grossRent":1729,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AZ","down":102476.8,"loan":409907.2,"mortgagePI":2658.650296896069,"monthlyTax":195.55989333333332,"taxRatePct":0.458,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.46% ($2,051 tax ÷ $448,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":204.95359999999997,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":86.45,"egi":1642.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":172.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":86.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":86.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":746.3134933333333,"noi":896.2365066666666,"totalExpenses":3404.9637902294025,"cashFlow":-1762.4137902294024,"annualCf":-21148.96548275283,"cocReturn":-20.637808248064758,"capRate":2.0989800774419183},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1892.0887902294023,"delta":-130,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1814.2837902294023,"delta":-52,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1813.6521902294025,"delta":-51,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2183.2593945335652,"delta":-421,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-07-01) (home values −14.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1955.3812041120405,"delta":-193,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2183.2593945335652,"baselineCashFlow":-1762.4137902294024,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.964373614900766,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":158980.7653278401,"totalCashOutlay":421708.70503278234,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":876110.4201459237,"equityBuilt":503966.03034667205,"netCostOfBuying":20219.474686110276,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":138761.29064172984},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.022229531562646,"price":512384,"medianIncome":72966,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.458,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.46% ($2,051 tax ÷ $448,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":512384,"secondary":448000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1729,"secondary":1473,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":448000,"high":512384}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1473,"high":1729}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":448000,"high":512384}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1473,"high":1729}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Coconino County, AZ is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Coconino County, AZ a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.7x, Coconino County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Coconino County?","a":"The typical home value in Coconino County is about $512,384 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.9% year-over-year, and up 46.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Coconino County?","a":"The typical rent in Coconino County is about $1,729/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Coconino County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Coconino County — roughly $138,761 ahead of renting, with about $503,966 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Coconino County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Coconino County's median home value is 7.0x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Coconino County?","a":"Coconino County's effective property tax rate is about 0.46% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.46% ($2,051 tax ÷ $448,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $512,384 median home is roughly $196/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Coconino County, AZ was $512,384 as of April 2026, up 2.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Coconino County, AZ was $1,729/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Coconino County, AZ has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=coconino-az","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=coconino-az"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:14:07.080Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Flagstaff, AZ MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Flagstaff, AZ MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":512384,"countyFmr":1729,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Flagstaff, AZ MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}