{"area":{"county":"Cochran County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"cochran-tx","metro":"Cochran County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":44350},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":46627},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":47481},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":49464},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":52181},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":53200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":53116},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":53190},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":53484},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":53522},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":53906},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":53701},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":54586},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":54595},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":54388},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":54520},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":55597},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":55952},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":55992},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":55649},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":56865}],"latest":56865,"yoy":2.2806985988452615,"fiveYr":28.218714768883878,"sinceStart":351.02315989847716,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":45313,"population":2550,"povertyRate":27.764127764127768,"medianHomeValue":53200,"medianGrossRent":697,"medianPropertyTax":583},"hud":{"county":"Cochran County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":4.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":5.097706765684529,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":56865,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":11373,"loan":45492,"mortgagePI":295.06024609081265,"monthlyTax":51.9367,"taxRatePct":1.096,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($583 tax ÷ $53,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":40.279375,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":295.016075,"noi":668.283925,"totalExpenses":590.0763210908126,"cashFlow":373.2236789091873,"annualCf":4478.684146910247,"cocReturn":39.37997139637956,"capRate":14.102536006330782},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":297.17367890918734,"delta":-76,"survives":true},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":342.80367890918734,"delta":-30,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":363.1538351591873,"delta":-10,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":326.5177214851533,"delta":-47,"survives":true},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-01-01) (home values −18.1% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1982-01-01 → 1982-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":235.22135087342866,"delta":-138,"survives":true}],"survived":5,"total":5,"score":100,"worstCashFlow":235.22135087342866,"baselineCashFlow":373.2236789091873,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.097706765684529,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":52178.961571645756,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":80537.42171315373,"equityBuilt":39236.38435458196,"netCostOfBuying":24315.577217063794,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":68921.26259926349},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":1.2549378765475692,"price":56865,"medianIncome":45313,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.096,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($583 tax ÷ $53,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":56865,"secondary":53200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.07,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":697,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.45,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":53200,"high":56865}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.45,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":697,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":53200,"high":56865}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.45,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":697,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cochran County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 4.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (373/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cochran County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Cochran County's price-to-rent ratio of 4.7 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $373/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cochran County?","a":"The typical home value in Cochran County is about $56,865 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.3% year-over-year, and up 28.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cochran County?","a":"The typical rent in Cochran County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cochran County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cochran County — roughly $68,921 ahead of renting, with about $39,236 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cochran County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cochran County's median home value is 1.3x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cochran County?","a":"Cochran County's effective property tax rate is about 1.10% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.10% ($583 tax ÷ $53,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $56,865 median home is roughly $52/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cochran County, TX was $56,865 as of April 2026, up 2.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cochran County, TX was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cochran County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 4.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cochran-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cochran-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T19:11:08.368Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Cochran County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cochran County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":56865,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cochran County, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}