{"area":{"county":"Coahoma County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"coahoma-ms","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":76517},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":79303},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":83390},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":85722},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":88263},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":90300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":89715},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":91894},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":92699},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":92501},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":99222},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":93692},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":95711},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":97471},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":98641},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":99685},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":102615},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":101801},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":101725},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":103558},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":103093}],"latest":103093,"yoy":0.46581883740193925,"fiveYr":34.73215102526236,"sinceStart":227.91437386685328,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":905}],"latest":905,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":37461,"population":20540,"povertyRate":35.5087332966318,"medianHomeValue":90300,"medianGrossRent":749,"medianPropertyTax":1012},"hud":{"county":"Coahoma County","year":"2027","perUnit":905,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":10207,"ratePer100k":172.75638421751023},"propertyCrime":{"total":60335,"ratePer100k":1021.187071790289},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":9.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.144572903474121,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":103093,"monthlyRent":905,"grossRent":905,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":20618.600000000002,"loan":82474.4,"mortgagePI":534.9273885560564,"monthlyTax":96.30604416666667,"taxRatePct":1.121,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,012 tax ÷ $90,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":63.574016666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.25,"egi":859.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":340.88006083333335,"noi":518.8699391666667,"totalExpenses":875.8074493893897,"cashFlow":-16.057449389389717,"annualCf":-192.6893926726766,"cocReturn":-0.9345415919251384,"capRate":6.039633408669841},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-83.93244938938977,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-43.207449389389694,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-31.95095355605639,"delta":-16,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-100.73268492470913,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-59.341225156852204,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-100.73268492470913,"baselineCashFlow":-16.057449389389717,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.144572903474121,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83214.33928380294,"totalCashOutlay":86325.66248147345,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":156499.7813299308,"equityBuilt":81623.35744164734,"netCostOfBuying":25320.905039826117,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57893.43424397682},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.7520087557726702,"price":103093,"medianIncome":37461,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.121,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,012 tax ÷ $90,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":103093,"secondary":90300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":905,"secondary":749,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":90300,"high":103093}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":749,"high":905}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":90300,"high":103093}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":749,"high":905}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Coahoma County, MS leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Coahoma County, MS a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Coahoma County's price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Coahoma County?","a":"The typical home value in Coahoma County is about $103,093 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 34.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Coahoma County?","a":"The typical rent in Coahoma County is about $905/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Coahoma County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Coahoma County — roughly $57,893 ahead of renting, with about $81,623 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Coahoma County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Coahoma County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Coahoma County?","a":"Coahoma County's effective property tax rate is about 1.12% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,012 tax ÷ $90,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $103,093 median home is roughly $96/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Coahoma County, MS was $103,093 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Coahoma County, MS was $905/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Coahoma County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=coahoma-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=coahoma-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:22:35.464Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":103093,"countyFmr":905,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}