{"area":{"county":"Clear Creek County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"clear-creek-co","metro":"Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":545742},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":568866},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":585350},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":626196},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":635416},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":608500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":605011},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":600985},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":611045},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":624213},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":624785},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":622265},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":624317},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":623945},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":634836},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":633979},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":619270},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":625226},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":615391},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":613469},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":613192}],"latest":613192,"yoy":-0.9814781920648505,"fiveYr":12.359319971708244,"sinceStart":608.2783713543171,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2169}],"latest":2169,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":94577,"population":9262,"povertyRate":6.390158937513607,"medianHomeValue":608500,"medianGrossRent":1467,"medianPropertyTax":2350},"hud":{"county":"Clear Creek County","year":"2027","perUnit":2169,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":23.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.358333428944359,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":613192,"monthlyRent":2169,"grossRent":2169,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":122638.40000000001,"loan":490553.6,"mortgagePI":3181.7213122468584,"monthlyTax":197.24342666666666,"taxRatePct":0.386,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($2,350 tax ÷ $608,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":378.1350666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":108.45,"egi":2060.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":216.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":108.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":108.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1009.1784933333334,"noi":1051.3715066666668,"totalExpenses":4190.899805580192,"cashFlow":-2130.3498055801915,"annualCf":-25564.197666962296,"cocReturn":-20.845181987829502,"capRate":2.0575053294889694},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2293.0248055801917,"delta":-163,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2195.4198055801917,"delta":-65,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2224.8835722468584,"delta":-95,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2633.9938651028897,"delta":-504,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.4% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2022-04-01 → 2023-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2218.4977736042893,"delta":-88,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2633.9938651028897,"baselineCashFlow":-2130.3498055801915,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.358333428944359,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":199438.56564261724,"totalCashOutlay":495431.8994136356,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":721869.8839523067,"equityBuilt":276508.6652768934,"netCostOfBuying":341561.6341367422,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":142123.06849412498},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.483521363545048,"price":613192,"medianIncome":94577,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.386,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($2,350 tax ÷ $608,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":613192,"secondary":608500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.01,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2169,"secondary":1467,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.48,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":608500,"high":613192}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1467,"high":2169}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 2.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":608500,"high":613192}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1467,"high":2169}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Clear Creek County, CO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 23.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Clear Creek County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 23.6x, Clear Creek County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Clear Creek County?","a":"The typical home value in Clear Creek County is about $613,192 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 12.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Clear Creek County?","a":"The typical rent in Clear Creek County is about $2,169/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Clear Creek County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Clear Creek County by about $142,123 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Clear Creek County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Clear Creek County's median home value is 6.5x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Clear Creek County?","a":"Clear Creek County's effective property tax rate is about 0.39% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($2,350 tax ÷ $608,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $613,192 median home is roughly $197/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Clear Creek County, CO was $613,192 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Clear Creek County, CO was $2,169/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Clear Creek County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=clear-creek-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=clear-creek-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:22:10.337Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":613192,"countyFmr":2169,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}