{"area":{"county":"Clay County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"clay-nc","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":225079},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":238878},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":249542},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":263891},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":277828},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":278400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":281665},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":284728},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":290259},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":298259},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":298577},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":303124},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":306910},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":309481},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":314664},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":316337},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":316561},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":316177},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":317871},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":318559},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":317871}],"latest":317871,"yoy":0.41382229649261915,"fiveYr":41.226413836919484,"sinceStart":339.0604712837371,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1087}],"latest":1087,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56971,"population":11610,"povertyRate":12.884905492945247,"medianHomeValue":278400,"medianGrossRent":804,"medianPropertyTax":1186},"hud":{"county":"Clay County","year":"2027","perUnit":1087,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":66735,"ratePer100k":297.9781688963569},"propertyCrime":{"total":354569,"ratePer100k":1583.184556340936},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.148794992114649,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":317871,"monthlyRent":1087,"grossRent":1087,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":63574.200000000004,"loan":254296.8,"mortgagePI":1649.364204433882,"monthlyTax":112.84420499999999,"taxRatePct":0.426,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($1,186 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":174.82905000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.35,"egi":1032.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.35,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.35,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":505.0732550000001,"noi":527.5767450000001,"totalExpenses":2154.437459433882,"cashFlow":-1121.7874594338818,"annualCf":-13461.449513206582,"cocReturn":-21.17439073272897,"capRate":1.9916635805090745},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1203.312459433882,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1154.397459433882,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1165.494721933882,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1382.8701885701716,"delta":-261,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1172.5183422836249,"delta":-51,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1382.8701885701716,"baselineCashFlow":-1121.7874594338818,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.148794992114649,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99949.1566867335,"totalCashOutlay":269547.7555052829,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":515420.8076469221,"equityBuilt":284551.16821657715,"netCostOfBuying":48570.78728870576,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":51378.369398027746},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.579522915167366,"price":317871,"medianIncome":56971,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.426,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($1,186 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":317871,"secondary":278400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1087,"secondary":804,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":278400,"high":317871}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":804,"high":1087}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":278400,"high":317871}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":804,"high":1087}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Clay County, NC is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Clay County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.4x, Clay County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Clay County?","a":"The typical home value in Clay County is about $317,871 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Clay County?","a":"The typical rent in Clay County is about $1,087/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Clay County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Clay County — roughly $51,378 ahead of renting, with about $284,551 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Clay County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Clay County's median home value is 5.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Clay County?","a":"Clay County's effective property tax rate is about 0.43% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($1,186 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $317,871 median home is roughly $113/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Clay County, NC was $317,871 as of April 2026, up 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Clay County, NC was $1,087/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Clay County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=clay-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=clay-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:51:40.356Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":317871,"countyFmr":1087,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}