{"area":{"county":"Clatsop County","state":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","slug":"clatsop-or","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":419870},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":436498},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":450242},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":469854},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":474469},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":468300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":465826},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":460191},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":466800},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":472985},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":470372},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":477399},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":478427},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":482616},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":484959},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":484441},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":484959},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":484217},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":486876},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":487239},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":486366}],"latest":486366,"yoy":0.290127619035836,"fiveYr":15.837282968537881,"sinceStart":529.1683375806889,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1318}],"latest":1318,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71822,"population":41363,"povertyRate":12.320187885311675,"medianHomeValue":468300,"medianGrossRent":1180,"medianPropertyTax":3236},"hud":{"county":"Clatsop County","year":"2027","perUnit":1318,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Oregon","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25550,"ratePer100k":298.9292832763866},"propertyCrime":{"total":177482,"ratePer100k":2076.4996890199473},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":30.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.9843947112311087,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":486366,"monthlyRent":1318,"grossRent":1318,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OR","down":97273.20000000001,"loan":389092.8,"mortgagePI":2523.648494683974,"monthlyTax":280.06575499999997,"taxRatePct":0.691,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($3,236 tax ÷ $468,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":178.3342,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.9,"egi":1252.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":131.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":721.999955,"noi":530.1000449999999,"totalExpenses":3245.648449683974,"cashFlow":-1993.5484496839742,"annualCf":-23922.58139620769,"cocReturn":-24.593188459110717,"capRate":1.3079040352327258},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2092.398449683974,"delta":-99,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2033.0884496839742,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2038.1319996839743,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2393.024220166656,"delta":-399,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2107.110512206432,"delta":-114,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2393.024220166656,"baselineCashFlow":-1993.5484496839742,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.9843947112311087,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":121189.50185199149,"totalCashOutlay":394934.69482250314,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":597534.7305912889,"equityBuilt":244287.20863685122,"netCostOfBuying":247920.68618565192,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":126731.18433366044},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.7718247890618475,"price":486366,"medianIncome":71822,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.691,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($3,236 tax ÷ $468,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":486366,"secondary":468300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1318,"secondary":1180,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":468300,"high":486366}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1180,"high":1318}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":468300,"high":486366}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1180,"high":1318}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Clatsop County, OR is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 30.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Clatsop County, OR a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 30.8x, Clatsop County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Clatsop County?","a":"The typical home value in Clatsop County is about $486,366 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.3% year-over-year, and up 15.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Clatsop County?","a":"The typical rent in Clatsop County is about $1,318/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Clatsop County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Clatsop County by about $126,731 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Clatsop County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Clatsop County's median home value is 6.8x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Clatsop County?","a":"Clatsop County's effective property tax rate is about 0.69% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($3,236 tax ÷ $468,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $486,366 median home is roughly $280/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Clatsop County, OR was $486,366 as of April 2026, up 0.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Clatsop County, OR was $1,318/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Clatsop County, OR has a price-to-rent ratio of 30.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=clatsop-or","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=clatsop-or"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:11:05.047Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":486366,"countyFmr":1318,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}