{"area":{"county":"Cibola County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"cibola-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":106558},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":111483},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":115133},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":119455},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":124701},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":125400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":126420},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":128198},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":129375},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":133197},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":133096},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":135960},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":137134},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":138384},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":141085},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":142436},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":144529},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":142164},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":142003},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":145217},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":142723}],"latest":142723,"yoy":-1.2495762096188308,"fiveYr":33.93926312430789,"sinceStart":308.5738005267376,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1022}],"latest":1022,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":50759,"population":26845,"povertyRate":28.398731668648438,"medianHomeValue":125400,"medianGrossRent":759,"medianPropertyTax":1003},"hud":{"county":"Cibola County","year":"2027","perUnit":1022,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25755,"ratePer100k":604.5048106894195},"propertyCrime":{"total":88070,"ratePer100k":2067.122449132874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":11.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.0193301844333025,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":142723,"monthlyRent":1022,"grossRent":1022,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":28544.600000000002,"loan":114178.4,"mortgagePI":740.5589290920435,"monthlyTax":95.14866666666667,"taxRatePct":0.8,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,003 tax ÷ $125,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":78.49765000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.1,"egi":970.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":378.0463166666667,"noi":592.8536833333333,"totalExpenses":1118.6052457587102,"cashFlow":-147.70524575871025,"annualCf":-1772.462949104523,"cocReturn":-6.2094509963514035,"capRate":4.984651527784589},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-224.3552457587101,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-178.36524575871022,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-167.3296582587103,"delta":-20,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-264.93050490634766,"delta":-117,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-203.48388040495013,"delta":-56,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-264.93050490634766,"baselineCashFlow":-147.70524575871025,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.0193301844333025,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93972.43618568688,"totalCashOutlay":118201.78207275373,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":214876.71625414368,"equityBuilt":111217.03182738832,"netCostOfBuying":35529.35024536542,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":58443.085940321456},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8117772217734784,"price":142723,"medianIncome":50759,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.8,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,003 tax ÷ $125,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":142723,"secondary":125400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1022,"secondary":759,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.35,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":125400,"high":142723}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":759,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":125400,"high":142723}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.35,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":759,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cibola County, NM leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 11.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cibola County, NM a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Cibola County's price-to-rent ratio of 11.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cibola County?","a":"The typical home value in Cibola County is about $142,723 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cibola County?","a":"The typical rent in Cibola County is about $1,022/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cibola County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cibola County — roughly $58,443 ahead of renting, with about $111,217 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cibola County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cibola County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cibola County?","a":"Cibola County's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,003 tax ÷ $125,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $142,723 median home is roughly $95/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cibola County, NM was $142,723 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cibola County, NM was $1,022/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cibola County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 11.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cibola-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cibola-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:23:29.638Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":142723,"countyFmr":1022,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}