{"area":{"county":"Chicot County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"chicot-ar","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":74532},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":77927},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":82296},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":84750},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":87595},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":89100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":90002},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":91737},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":92637},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":93689},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":95068},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":96495},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":97608},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":98977},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":99210},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":99668},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":101617},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":101053},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":103174},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":102713},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":102763}],"latest":102763,"yoy":1.1277640552269799,"fiveYr":37.87769011968013,"sinceStart":270.1837175792507,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":39045,"population":9765,"povertyRate":22.637119113573405,"medianHomeValue":89100,"medianGrossRent":574,"medianPropertyTax":436},"hud":{"county":"Chicot County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":9.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":6.635698842182536,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":102763,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":20552.600000000002,"loan":82210.4,"mortgagePI":533.2150895811163,"monthlyTax":41.8759225,"taxRatePct":0.489,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($436 tax ÷ $89,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":59.94508333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":283.6210058333333,"noi":579.9289941666666,"totalExpenses":816.8360954144496,"cashFlow":46.71390458555027,"annualCf":560.5668550266032,"cocReturn":2.727474163982188,"capRate":6.7720365598513075},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-21.461095414449574,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":19.443904585550285,"delta":-27,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":31.727633752217002,"delta":-15,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-37.69028609001475,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-10-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":1.7129997771399985,"delta":-45,"survives":true}],"survived":3,"total":5,"score":60,"worstCashFlow":-37.69028609001475,"baselineCashFlow":46.71390458555027,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.635698842182536,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":85834.36004124135,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":161122.09884361312,"equityBuilt":86485.35388487029,"netCostOfBuying":19901.60615637107,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":63680.53131211168},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.6319118965296453,"price":102763,"medianIncome":39045,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.489,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($436 tax ÷ $89,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":102763,"secondary":89100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":574,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.58,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":89100,"high":102763}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":574,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":89100,"high":102763}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":574,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Chicot County, AR leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 9.4 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (47/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Chicot County, AR a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Chicot County's price-to-rent ratio of 9.4 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $47/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Chicot County?","a":"The typical home value in Chicot County is about $102,763 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 37.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Chicot County?","a":"The typical rent in Chicot County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Chicot County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Chicot County — roughly $63,681 ahead of renting, with about $86,485 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Chicot County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Chicot County's median home value is 2.6x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Chicot County?","a":"Chicot County's effective property tax rate is about 0.49% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($436 tax ÷ $89,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $102,763 median home is roughly $42/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Chicot County, AR was $102,763 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Chicot County, AR was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Chicot County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 9.4 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=chicot-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=chicot-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T10:38:16.750Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":102763,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}