{"area":{"county":"Cherry County","state":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","slug":"cherry-ne","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":133551},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":138335},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":142694},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":147229},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":151033},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":152200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":154645},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":156820},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":159029},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":162857},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":161890},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":166906},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":169449},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":168792},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":173482},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":172820},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":174939},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":175918},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":177400},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":179408},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":178482}],"latest":178482,"yoy":2.0252773824018657,"fiveYr":33.64332726823461,"sinceStart":337.2843982751862,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1114}],"latest":1114,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66270,"population":5498,"povertyRate":8.293490253769768,"medianHomeValue":152200,"medianGrossRent":916,"medianPropertyTax":1505},"hud":{"county":"Cherry County","year":"2027","perUnit":1114,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nebraska","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8346,"ratePer100k":206.7882850695191},"propertyCrime":{"total":52809,"ratePer100k":1308.445069043402},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.972432830165353,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":178482,"monthlyRent":1114,"grossRent":1114,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NE","down":35696.4,"loan":142785.6,"mortgagePI":926.1046837735062,"monthlyTax":147.098915,"taxRatePct":0.989,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,505 tax ÷ $152,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":113.03859999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.76,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55.7,"egi":1058.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":111.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":482.93751499999996,"noi":575.362485,"totalExpenses":1409.0421987735062,"cashFlow":-350.7421987735062,"annualCf":-4208.906385282075,"cocReturn":-11.790842732830411,"capRate":3.8683731804887884},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-434.29219877350613,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-384.162198773506,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-379.00184877350614,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-497.33804319373724,"delta":-147,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-379.78871729202467,"delta":-29,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-497.33804319373724,"baselineCashFlow":-350.7421987735062,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.972432830165353,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":102431.7944333221,"totalCashOutlay":163934.38922148198,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","homeValueAfter":267882.75472626457,"equityBuilt":138251.3162345278,"netCostOfBuying":61379.47298695418,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41052.32144636792},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.6932548664554097,"price":178482,"medianIncome":66270,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.989,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,505 tax ÷ $152,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":178482,"secondary":152200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1114,"secondary":916,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152200,"high":178482}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":916,"high":1114}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152200,"high":178482}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":916,"high":1114}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cherry County, NE leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.4 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cherry County, NE a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Cherry County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.4 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cherry County?","a":"The typical home value in Cherry County is about $178,482 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 33.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cherry County?","a":"The typical rent in Cherry County is about $1,114/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cherry County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cherry County — roughly $41,052 ahead of renting, with about $138,251 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cherry County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cherry County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cherry County?","a":"Cherry County's effective property tax rate is about 0.99% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,505 tax ÷ $152,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $178,482 median home is roughly $147/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cherry County, NE was $178,482 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cherry County, NE was $1,114/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cherry County, NE has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.4 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cherry-ne","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cherry-ne"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:24:31.059Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":178482,"countyFmr":1114,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}