{"area":{"county":"Chemung County","state":"NY","stateName":"New York","slug":"chemung-ny","metro":"Elmira, NY MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":121096},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":130781},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":127954},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":136716},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":141593},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":141100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":146522},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":140189},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":157226},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":149445},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":140796},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":159510},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":151083},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":162167},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":162408},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":155006},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":166071},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":164027},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":163546},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":174055},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":171024}],"latest":171024,"yoy":2.982459309572412,"fiveYr":41.23009843430006,"sinceStart":180.19266686326552,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1348}],"latest":1348,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63716,"population":82147,"povertyRate":16.313919553356175,"medianHomeValue":141100,"medianGrossRent":1059,"medianPropertyTax":3451},"hud":{"county":"Chemung County","year":"2027","perUnit":1348,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New York","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":140684,"ratePer100k":351.6673251700906},"propertyCrime":{"total":600711,"ratePer100k":1501.5952814126006},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.149354165276001,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":171024,"monthlyRent":1348,"grossRent":1348,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":34204.8,"loan":136819.2,"mortgagePI":887.4067269398602,"monthlyTax":348.60392,"taxRatePct":2.446,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.45% ($3,451 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":71.26,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67.4,"egi":1280.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":134.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":689.4639199999999,"noi":591.13608,"totalExpenses":1576.87064693986,"cashFlow":-296.27064693986017,"annualCf":-3555.247763278322,"cocReturn":-10.3940024887686,"capRate":4.147741229301151},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-397.3706469398602,"delta":-101,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-336.71064693986,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-314.0856469398602,"delta":-18,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-436.74087752964283,"delta":-140,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1990-07-01) (home values −10.4% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-04-01 → 2023-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-401.91939460246033,"delta":-106,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-436.74087752964283,"baselineCashFlow":-296.27064693986017,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.149354165276001,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":123947.98823708993,"totalCashOutlay":155730.3632814339,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":277321.77017473144,"equityBuilt":153107.07549061312,"netCostOfBuying":36828.08779082079,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":87119.90044626914},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.684160964278988,"price":171024,"medianIncome":63716,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.446,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.45% ($3,451 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":171024,"secondary":141100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1348,"secondary":1059,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":141100,"high":171024}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1059,"high":1348}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":141100,"high":171024}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1059,"high":1348}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Chemung County, NY leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Chemung County, NY a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Chemung County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Chemung County?","a":"The typical home value in Chemung County is about $171,024 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.0% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Chemung County?","a":"The typical rent in Chemung County is about $1,348/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Chemung County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Chemung County — roughly $87,120 ahead of renting, with about $153,107 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Chemung County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Chemung County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Chemung County?","a":"Chemung County's effective property tax rate is about 2.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 2.45% ($3,451 tax ÷ $141,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $171,024 median home is roughly $349/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Chemung County, NY was $171,024 as of April 2026, up 3.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Chemung County, NY was $1,348/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Chemung County, NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=chemung-ny","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=chemung-ny"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:29:49.781Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Elmira, NY MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Elmira, NY MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":171024,"countyFmr":1348,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Elmira, NY MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"NY","stateName":"New York","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}