{"area":{"county":"Charlottesville city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"charlottesville-va","metro":"Charlottesville, VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":404558},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":421757},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":429841},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":446349},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":483779},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":486700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":489028},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":502883},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":510558},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":523595},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":520039},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":526868},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":553111},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":545266},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":550500},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":557978},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":576856},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":565075},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":574937},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":582104},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":594450}],"latest":594450,"yoy":3.049981277823235,"fiveYr":46.93813989588638,"sinceStart":597.1058001266505,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1642}],"latest":1642,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":74824,"population":45437,"povertyRate":19.645001059346974,"medianHomeValue":486700,"medianGrossRent":1540,"medianPropertyTax":3915},"hud":{"county":"Charlottesville city","year":"2027","perUnit":1642,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":30.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.001921955923041,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":594450,"monthlyRent":1642,"grossRent":1642,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":118890,"loan":475560,"mortgagePI":3084.4731080398064,"monthlyTax":398.28150000000005,"taxRatePct":0.804,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,915 tax ÷ $486,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":277.41,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.10000000000001,"egi":1559.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":164.20000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.10000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.10000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1004.0915000000002,"noi":555.8084999999999,"totalExpenses":4088.5646080398064,"cashFlow":-2528.664608039807,"annualCf":-30343.97529647768,"cocReturn":-25.522731345342486,"capRate":1.1219954579863738},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2651.8146080398064,"delta":-123,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2577.924608039807,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2598.0171080398068,"delta":-69,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3016.9149622245777,"delta":-488,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-07-01) (home values −7.3% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1983-07-01 → 1983-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2618.1163870111227,"delta":-89,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3016.9149622245777,"baselineCashFlow":-2528.664608039807,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.001921955923041,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":150981.1548110546,"totalCashOutlay":502640.8462192394,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1018909.7543697191,"equityBuilt":587160.8462926421,"netCostOfBuying":34369.999926597346,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":116611.15488445727},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.944643429915535,"price":594450,"medianIncome":74824,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.804,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,915 tax ÷ $486,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":594450,"secondary":486700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1642,"secondary":1540,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.07,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":486700,"high":594450}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1540,"high":1642}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":486700,"high":594450}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1540,"high":1642}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Charlottesville city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 30.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Charlottesville city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 30.2x, Charlottesville city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Charlottesville city?","a":"The typical home value in Charlottesville city is about $594,450 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.0% year-over-year, and up 46.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Charlottesville city?","a":"The typical rent in Charlottesville city is about $1,642/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Charlottesville city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Charlottesville city — roughly $116,611 ahead of renting, with about $587,161 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Charlottesville city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Charlottesville city's median home value is 7.9x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Charlottesville city?","a":"Charlottesville city's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,915 tax ÷ $486,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $594,450 median home is roughly $398/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Charlottesville city, VA was $594,450 as of April 2026, up 3.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Charlottesville city, VA was $1,642/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Charlottesville city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 30.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=charlottesville-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=charlottesville-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:45:49.522Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Charlottesville, VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Charlottesville, VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":594450,"countyFmr":1642,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Charlottesville, VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}