{"area":{"county":"Charles City County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"charles-city-va","metro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":211951},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":215997},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":223984},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":234913},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":241004},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":241400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":245881},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":249699},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":253257},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":261861},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":266725},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":267102},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":274517},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":277024},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":274673},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":281790},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":285154},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":286433},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":289894},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":291316},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":290362}],"latest":290362,"yoy":1.8263815341885437,"fiveYr":36.99487145613845,"sinceStart":347.15104102500925,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1651}],"latest":1651,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":75417,"population":6627,"povertyRate":9.445709946848899,"medianHomeValue":241400,"medianGrossRent":1099,"medianPropertyTax":1343},"hud":{"county":"Charles City County","year":"2027","perUnit":1651,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":14.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.498773227647892,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":290362,"monthlyRent":1651,"grossRent":1651,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":58072.4,"loan":232289.6,"mortgagePI":1506.625924125922,"monthlyTax":134.53439333333336,"taxRatePct":0.556,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,343 tax ÷ $241,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":135.50226666666669,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.55000000000001,"egi":1568.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":600.23666,"noi":968.21334,"totalExpenses":2106.862584125922,"cashFlow":-538.412584125922,"annualCf":-6460.951009511064,"cocReturn":-11.125682784784276,"capRate":4.001405170098015},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-662.237584125922,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-587.9425841259219,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-572.2881507925886,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-776.9008494834766,"delta":-238,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-657.9783813856973,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-776.9008494834766,"baselineCashFlow":-538.412584125922,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.498773227647892,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151808.70072658415,"totalCashOutlay":242782.66245399532,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":451182.25959382975,"equityBuilt":240292.40098995,"netCostOfBuying":60562.66146404532,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":91246.03926253883},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.85008685044486,"price":290362,"medianIncome":75417,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.556,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,343 tax ÷ $241,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":290362,"secondary":241400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1651,"secondary":1099,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.5,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":241400,"high":290362}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.5,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1099,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":241400,"high":290362}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.5,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1099,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Charles City County, VA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Charles City County, VA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Charles City County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.7 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Charles City County?","a":"The typical home value in Charles City County is about $290,362 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Charles City County?","a":"The typical rent in Charles City County is about $1,651/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Charles City County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Charles City County — roughly $91,246 ahead of renting, with about $240,292 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Charles City County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Charles City County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Charles City County?","a":"Charles City County's effective property tax rate is about 0.56% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($1,343 tax ÷ $241,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $290,362 median home is roughly $135/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Charles City County, VA was $290,362 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Charles City County, VA was $1,651/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Charles City County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=charles-city-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=charles-city-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:24:44.644Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":290362,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}