{"area":{"county":"Catron County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"catron-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":141907},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":148466},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":153328},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":159082},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":166070},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":167000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":168358},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":170726},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":172294},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177383},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":177249},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":181063},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":182626},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":184292},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":187888},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":189688},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":192475},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":189325},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":189111},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":193391},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":190070}],"latest":190070,"yoy":-1.249512923756332,"fiveYr":33.93983383483549,"sinceStart":308.56817351303715,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1059}],"latest":1059,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49864,"population":3743,"povertyRate":24.77923468022478,"medianHomeValue":167000,"medianGrossRent":736,"medianPropertyTax":608},"hud":{"county":"Catron County","year":"2027","perUnit":1059,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":28303,"ratePer100k":664.3098294289513},"propertyCrime":{"total":107901,"ratePer100k":2532.5829383886257},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":15,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.0194205455825545,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":190070,"monthlyRent":1059,"grossRent":1059,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":38014,"loan":152056,"mortgagePI":986.2323217177659,"monthlyTax":57.65456666666666,"taxRatePct":0.364,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($608 tax ÷ $167,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.5385,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":52.95,"egi":1006.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":105.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":52.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":52.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":373.99306666666666,"noi":632.0569333333333,"totalExpenses":1360.2253883844326,"cashFlow":-354.1753883844326,"annualCf":-4250.104660613191,"cocReturn":-11.180366866452337,"capRate":3.990468353764402},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-433.60038838443245,"delta":-79,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-385.9453883844326,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-380.3100133844325,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-510.28901412234086,"delta":-156,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-411.9680687637489,"delta":-58,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-510.28901412234086,"baselineCashFlow":-354.1753883844326,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.0194205455825545,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":97374.56939397493,"totalCashOutlay":157414.2016073988,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":286161.73375404975,"equityBuilt":148113.93333650412,"netCostOfBuying":47314.26827089468,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":50060.30112308025},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8117680089844375,"price":190070,"medianIncome":49864,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.364,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($608 tax ÷ $167,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":190070,"secondary":167000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1059,"secondary":736,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.44,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167000,"high":190070}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":736,"high":1059}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167000,"high":190070}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":736,"high":1059}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Catron County, NM is a moderate market — a 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Catron County, NM a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Catron County's 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Catron County?","a":"The typical home value in Catron County is about $190,070 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Catron County?","a":"The typical rent in Catron County is about $1,059/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Catron County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Catron County — roughly $50,060 ahead of renting, with about $148,114 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Catron County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Catron County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Catron County?","a":"Catron County's effective property tax rate is about 0.36% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($608 tax ÷ $167,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $190,070 median home is roughly $58/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Catron County, NM was $190,070 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Catron County, NM was $1,059/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Catron County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=catron-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=catron-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:01:55.066Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":190070,"countyFmr":1059,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}