{"area":{"county":"Caswell County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"caswell-nc","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":132994},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":141147},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":147449},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":155927},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":164162},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":164500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":166429},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":168239},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":171507},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":176234},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":176422},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":179109},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":181346},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":182865},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":185928},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":186916},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":187048},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":186822},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":187823},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":188229},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":187823}],"latest":187823,"yoy":0.4143321500363543,"fiveYr":41.226671879934436,"sinceStart":339.0644723923512,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1012}],"latest":1012,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59755,"population":22404,"povertyRate":18.615854240198416,"medianHomeValue":164500,"medianGrossRent":727,"medianPropertyTax":1140},"hud":{"county":"Caswell County","year":"2027","perUnit":1012,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":66735,"ratePer100k":297.9781688963569},"propertyCrime":{"total":354569,"ratePer100k":1583.184556340936},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.148834153008998,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":187823,"monthlyRent":1012,"grossRent":1012,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":37564.6,"loan":150258.4,"mortgagePI":974.5731223338557,"monthlyTax":108.4677825,"taxRatePct":0.693,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,140 tax ÷ $164,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":103.30264999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.6,"egi":961.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":414.1704325,"noi":547.2295675,"totalExpenses":1388.7435548338558,"cashFlow":-427.3435548338557,"annualCf":-5128.1226580062685,"cocReturn":-13.651476810630935,"capRate":3.496246364928683},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-503.2435548338557,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-457.70355483385583,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-453.16921733385584,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-581.6116114812546,"delta":-154,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-474.5761360200122,"delta":-47,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-581.6116114812546,"baselineCashFlow":-427.3435548338557,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.148834153008998,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93052.94072398738,"totalCashOutlay":159269.9027006122,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":304551.6263683047,"equityBuilt":168135.82157099483,"netCostOfBuying":28698.681129617384,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":64354.25959437},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1432181407413604,"price":187823,"medianIncome":59755,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.693,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,140 tax ÷ $164,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":187823,"secondary":164500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1012,"secondary":727,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.39,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164500,"high":187823}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":727,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164500,"high":187823}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":727,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Caswell County, NC is a moderate market — a 15.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Caswell County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Caswell County's 15.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Caswell County?","a":"The typical home value in Caswell County is about $187,823 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Caswell County?","a":"The typical rent in Caswell County is about $1,012/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Caswell County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Caswell County — roughly $64,354 ahead of renting, with about $168,136 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Caswell County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Caswell County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Caswell County?","a":"Caswell County's effective property tax rate is about 0.69% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.69% ($1,140 tax ÷ $164,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $187,823 median home is roughly $108/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Caswell County, NC was $187,823 as of April 2026, up 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Caswell County, NC was $1,012/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Caswell County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=caswell-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=caswell-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:50:17.420Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":187823,"countyFmr":1012,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}