{"area":{"county":"Cass County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"cass-mi","metro":"Cass County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":178004},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":187606},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":193246},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":198853},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":213819},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":218000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":216282},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":223964},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":232253},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":231402},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":232909},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":236669},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":244464},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":248937},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":251700},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":252486},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":256464},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":259787},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":261253},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":264081},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":273707}],"latest":273707,"yoy":6.7233607835797615,"fiveYr":53.76452214556976,"sinceStart":529.5009199632015,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1095}],"latest":1095,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":70443,"population":51520,"povertyRate":11.900800563722132,"medianHomeValue":218000,"medianGrossRent":916,"medianPropertyTax":2116},"hud":{"county":"Cass County","year":"2027","perUnit":1095,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.987413284437263,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":273707,"monthlyRent":1095,"grossRent":1095,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":54741.4,"loan":218965.6,"mortgagePI":1420.2067137391728,"monthlyTax":221.47458083333333,"taxRatePct":0.971,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,116 tax ÷ $218,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.92101666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.75,"egi":1040.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":545.3955975,"noi":494.8544025,"totalExpenses":1965.6023112391726,"cashFlow":-925.3523112391728,"annualCf":-11104.227734870074,"cocReturn":-20.284880793823458,"capRate":2.169565568290179},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1007.4773112391728,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-958.2023112391728,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-951.5825654058394,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1150.1610246597315,"delta":-225,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1982-01-01) (home values −26.5% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1982-04-01 → 1982-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1142.808728410946,"delta":-217,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1150.1610246597315,"baselineCashFlow":-925.3523112391728,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.987413284437263,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100684.75305609308,"totalCashOutlay":245528.70871737605,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":499942.8025595902,"equityBuilt":301149.466899648,"netCostOfBuying":-879.3581822719716,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":101564.11123836505},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.88551027071533,"price":273707,"medianIncome":70443,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.971,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,116 tax ÷ $218,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":273707,"secondary":218000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1095,"secondary":916,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":218000,"high":273707}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":916,"high":1095}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":218000,"high":273707}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":916,"high":1095}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cass County, MI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cass County, MI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.8x, Cass County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cass County?","a":"The typical home value in Cass County is about $273,707 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.7% year-over-year, and up 53.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cass County?","a":"The typical rent in Cass County is about $1,095/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cass County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cass County — roughly $101,564 ahead of renting, with about $301,149 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cass County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cass County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cass County?","a":"Cass County's effective property tax rate is about 0.97% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($2,116 tax ÷ $218,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $273,707 median home is roughly $221/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cass County, MI was $273,707 as of April 2026, up 6.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cass County, MI was $1,095/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cass County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cass-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cass-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:21:58.598Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Cass County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cass County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":273707,"countyFmr":1095,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Cass County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}