{"area":{"county":"Cascade County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"cascade-mt","metro":"Great Falls, MT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":223125},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":240945},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":247218},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":252621},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":277160},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":265300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":274753},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":286580},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":296323},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":299180},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":318577},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":311447},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":305408},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":321418},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":323518},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":321273},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":331668},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":335322},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":323284},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":335829},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":343912}],"latest":343912,"yoy":3.691643450679595,"fiveYr":54.13422969187675,"sinceStart":517.3697626826554,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1308}],"latest":1308,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":67690,"population":84606,"povertyRate":13.056664200016984,"medianHomeValue":265300,"medianGrossRent":939,"medianPropertyTax":2320},"hud":{"county":"Cascade County","year":"2027","perUnit":1308,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":9.039779441218009,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":343912,"monthlyRent":1308,"grossRent":1308,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":68782.40000000001,"loan":275129.6,"mortgagePI":1784.4853486957452,"monthlyTax":250.48257333333333,"taxRatePct":0.874,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($2,320 tax ÷ $265,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":177.68786666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.4,"egi":1242.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":130.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":689.77044,"noi":552.8295599999999,"totalExpenses":2474.255788695745,"cashFlow":-1231.6557886957453,"annualCf":-14779.869464348943,"cocReturn":-21.48786530325918,"capRate":1.928968666403033},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1329.7557886957452,"delta":-98,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1270.8957886957453,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1276.0777553624118,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1514.1272426588928,"delta":-282,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1995-01-01 → 1995-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1296.2864054249571,"delta":-65,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1514.1272426588928,"baselineCashFlow":-1231.6557886957453,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.039779441218009,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":120270.00639029202,"totalCashOutlay":294077.6223630344,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":630292.4142795204,"equityBuilt":380509.2021092724,"netCostOfBuying":-17649.17974623799,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":137919.18613653},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.080691387206382,"price":343912,"medianIncome":67690,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.874,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($2,320 tax ÷ $265,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":343912,"secondary":265300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1308,"secondary":939,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.39,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":265300,"high":343912}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":939,"high":1308}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":265300,"high":343912}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.39,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":939,"high":1308}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Cascade County, MT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Cascade County, MT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.9x, Cascade County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Cascade County?","a":"The typical home value in Cascade County is about $343,912 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.7% year-over-year, and up 54.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Cascade County?","a":"The typical rent in Cascade County is about $1,308/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Cascade County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Cascade County — roughly $137,919 ahead of renting, with about $380,509 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Cascade County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Cascade County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Cascade County?","a":"Cascade County's effective property tax rate is about 0.87% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.87% ($2,320 tax ÷ $265,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $343,912 median home is roughly $250/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Cascade County, MT was $343,912 as of April 2026, up 3.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Cascade County, MT was $1,308/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Cascade County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=cascade-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=cascade-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T15:09:31.581Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Great Falls, MT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Great Falls, MT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":343912,"countyFmr":1308,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Great Falls, MT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}