{"area":{"county":"Carbon County","state":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","slug":"carbon-wy","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":189517},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":198471},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":207388},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":212387},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":220915},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":222700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":222883},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":225520},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":227827},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":231329},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":228958},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":237682},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":238854},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":243203},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":246165},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":248609},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":250129},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":247620},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":254217},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":253603},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":258218}],"latest":258218,"yoy":3.2339312914536102,"fiveYr":36.25057382715007,"sinceStart":464.09035302341834,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1022}],"latest":1022,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":70511,"population":14463,"povertyRate":12.169274024944128,"medianHomeValue":222700,"medianGrossRent":842,"medianPropertyTax":1279},"hud":{"county":"Carbon County","year":"2027","perUnit":1022,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Wyoming","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":1978,"ratePer100k":167.98215890195038},"propertyCrime":{"total":10906,"ratePer100k":926.194855907316},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.382782780528862,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":258218,"monthlyRent":1022,"grossRent":1022,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WY","down":51643.600000000006,"loan":206574.4,"mortgagePI":1339.837626397212,"monthlyTax":123.51427666666666,"taxRatePct":0.574,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,279 tax ÷ $222,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":133.41263333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.1,"egi":970.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":461.32691000000005,"noi":509.5730899999999,"totalExpenses":1801.164536397212,"cashFlow":-830.2645363972122,"annualCf":-9963.174436766545,"cocReturn":-19.29217644929196,"capRate":2.368106437196477},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-906.914536397212,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-860.924536397212,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-863.6176947305455,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1042.3513897185735,"delta":-212,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-878.0057805163966,"delta":-48,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1042.3513897185735,"baselineCashFlow":-830.2645363972122,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.382782780528862,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93972.43618568688,"totalCashOutlay":211775.8608451528,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":398185.95602298714,"equityBuilt":210642.2777559393,"netCostOfBuying":52777.183089213504,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41195.253096473374},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6620952759143965,"price":258218,"medianIncome":70511,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.574,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,279 tax ÷ $222,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":258218,"secondary":222700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1022,"secondary":842,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222700,"high":258218}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":842,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222700,"high":258218}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":842,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Carbon County, WY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Carbon County, WY a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.1x, Carbon County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Carbon County?","a":"The typical home value in Carbon County is about $258,218 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.2% year-over-year, and up 36.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Carbon County?","a":"The typical rent in Carbon County is about $1,022/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Carbon County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Carbon County — roughly $41,195 ahead of renting, with about $210,642 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Carbon County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Carbon County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Carbon County?","a":"Carbon County's effective property tax rate is about 0.57% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,279 tax ÷ $222,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $258,218 median home is roughly $124/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Carbon County, WY was $258,218 as of April 2026, up 3.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Carbon County, WY was $1,022/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Carbon County, WY has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=carbon-wy","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=carbon-wy"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:04:51.918Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":258218,"countyFmr":1022,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}